The Commodity Supercycle
Our partner Marc Friedrich presents a new video series “The Commodity Supercycle” on his Youtube channel.
The term supercycle means the longest period, or wave, in the growth of a financial market as described by the Elliott wave principle, originally conceived and formulated by Ralph Nelson Elliott.
Marc Friedrich believes that a new supercycle has already started and calls it “The Commodity Supercycle”.
In a series of video interviews, Marc will give deep insights to commodity trading, timing and “financial intelligence”:
As a result of the Corona crisis, central banks have pumped more money into the system than ever before. In parallel, governments have put together fiscal packages at historically unprecedented levels to buffer the recession and the effects of the crisis. All of this has caused prices for building materials, energy and raw materials to soar and for the first time in 40 years we are seeing strong inflation. Marc Friedrich believes that we are seeing a turning point and are at the beginning of a Commodity Supercycle that holds huge opportunities.
With his new series “The Commodity Supercycle” Marc Friedrich has once again gathered the brightest and most famous minds in the world of finance and commodities to recognize and seize the great opportunities now. A series, which looks for its equals in Germany, yes in Europe. Financial intelligence of the Champions League!
Marc Friedrich contact details
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David Hunter: Stock Markets will crash by 80 % starting in 2021
The first interview in this new video series is with David Hunter:
David Hunter has been a countercyclical macro strategist for over 40 years and has correctly predicted many developments. He correctly predicted the recovery after the Corona crash and the development of commodities. Now he warns of a historic stock market crash – already by the end of the year.
David Hunter on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David Hunter was one of the view analysts who predicted the end of the Corona crash and recommended to buy stocks in April, 2020.
For 2021, Hunter expects a massive melt-up boom in the stock markets with the following All Time Highs:
S&P500: 4 700 to 5 000
NASDAQ: 17 000
Dow Jones Industrial: 38 000 or 39 000
Timestamps:
00:50 – 04:38 Where did his predictions come from?
04:38 – 07:33 How did he invest?
07:33 – 09:35 What can we expect?
09:35 – 14:39 When will the melt-up boom end?
14:39 – 19:00 How can we explain money printing?
19:00 – 26:55 Is the REPO also a trigger?
26:55 – 31:05 How will the stock market react?
31:05 – 37:32 What will happen to the dollar?
37:32 – 47:39 How can we protect ourselves?
47:39 – 50:19 What is the meaning of life & moderation
Complete video transcript (auto-generated):
wow
so welcome everyone to our new series
the
commodity super cycle and it’s a
pleasure and i’m honored and flattered
actually to
to have david hunter on the show david
how are you today
i’m good mark thanks for having me on
this pleasure the pleasure of mine
yeah and i just saw it’s the first time
you appear on a german channel so hey
it’s a historic interview i guess
it is for me that’s for sure yeah but
this time we
won’t do it in german next time perhaps
but
let’s start i’m a big follower of you on
twitter and
um you’re bullish since march 2020 so
in april 2020 and you have been the only
bull actually
um on the internet but you were spot on
actually yeah if you look back so you
were calling for
a way higher stock prices back then so
why and what did you see what nearly
nobody else saw
yeah so i i was actually going into the
into the swoon in march i was actually
looking for a melt up that
obviously the pandemic kind of
short-circuited so when we had that
35 very swift correction in the s
p um i certainly took a close look and i
said is this the beginning of
um bear market and bust that i also had
been calling for i said when the cycle
ended it would end in a global bust
yeah um and i thought gee is it
happening a little prematurely because
of the pandemic
took a look at all my work and i said no
you know sentiment’s gotten so negative
so
quickly that i don’t think this is this
is more of a fake out
you know i don’t think this is a real
the beginning of the real bear market
um and that was the start of me then
looking and saying is the melt
up still intact and it was as far as my
work said
and i felt this was actually setting up
for the melt up because
we were going to get a tremendous
response from the
um central banks around the world as
well as
fiscal response from the governments and
that’s exactly what we’ve had so
i i knew we were going to see bigger
than we had ever seen
in terms of monetary uh infusion
and that’s usually what drives markets
much higher
so it was and and i’m a contrarian so i
had the best of both worlds because i
had the
what i saw coming in terms of the
monetary and of course jay powell
confirmed that pretty quickly uh and
then sentiment was as negative as it had
been
in many years um and those two things
are
are kind of um magic for me when i see
both of those together that’s that’s you
know bullish so
so i and my my melt-up call
had been for probably 4 200.
i i kept that and said we could even
exceed that and then as we went through
the past year you know i increased it
first to 4 500
on the s p and then up to my current
level of 4 700
and i’ve been pretty uh candid about
saying i think
if anything i’m gonna be too low you
know that we could see even five
thousand
so um you know everything’s intact right
now i’m
still very bullish um i still believe
there’s a global bus coming afterwards
uh and probably probably starting before
this year is out
but okay uh but for right now
all all things look good i don’t think
you have more than a couple percent
you can always get a you know a couple
percent pull back at any time
but i don’t think there’s much more
downside than that and
you know pretty clear sailing through
the next at least next couple months on
the upside
all right awesome so um what did you buy
then back
in the last year in march or april 2020
what kind of stocks etfs or what did you
invest in
yeah as a strategist i don’t tend to
talk you know my trading or any trading
advice
um but what i will say is you know early
on i said
you know you’re going to see um the
the stocks that got us here are going to
continue to lead right into the top
and that’s still my view so i’m i’m
still a bull on
semiconductors and and the fang stocks
in terms of uh you know and technology
in general
i also along the way was
pretty bullish on industrials
commodities
um i can’t remember exactly when i
switched to
each of those things but i know last
november i
i was uh on the table in terms of saying
we’re we’re going to see a switch from
um yeah you’re going to see some of the
laggers start to really catch up
particularly energy
and financials along with some of the
industrials and that’s certainly been
been the story the last six months so
and now i think we may see some rotation
i think those groups
continue higher into the top i think
we’re going to see some rotation
um back in in terms of leadership back
into the
the stocks that got hit by uh rising
interest rates yeah you know
i’m calling for a rate rally here so i
think you’re going to see a shift back
towards the fangs um towards technology
towards the growth stocks
and i think it could surprise people how
how strong those are they’ve had a
pretty nice consolidation here for the
last four or five months
and it’s interesting because other um
hedge fund managers they see a switch
from
from value to from growth to value
like um stan brackenmiller or um
felix zuloff and so on raul powell as
well so
this is a contrarian um opinion again
you have
so this is interesting if it will play
out so so what yeah it’s interesting i
think
yeah i think that you know i find and
and not on those people specifically but
you know in general investors
tend to extrapolate from behind so they
look backwards and then say that’s
what’s going to continue forwards
yeah we we had that shift of value
obviously starting last november
um we’ve had a big move and basically
the fang stocks have gone sideways for
you know since the beginning of the year
um and so
i think you’re you’ve set up a nice
consolidation for the next leg up
okay um so and you know that’s what
that’s what fuels that leg is to shift
from those that are
now saying value to where as they see
the momentum
shift they’ll be the ones buying the
the growth stocks up yeah yeah so we are
brother and minds because i’m a
contrarian as well and i also see a
meltdown because the um central banks
print like never before they’re in a
crazy mood actually
it’s like a tesla but anyhow and so we
talked about sentiment already you
mentioned it so what do you expect for
the next
month yeah probably
um yeah as i said i’m expecting
you know the bond market to rally here
i’m i’m calling for a 1
[Music]
20 on the 10-year probably at 195
on the 30-year um
and so i think as rates start coming
down
that’s going to help sentiment you’re
going to see i think
you know and as the tape improves on the
stock market
you’re going to see sentiment move up so
really i know everybody’s talking about
how everybody
all in and bullish but what i see out
there is a lot of skepticism
people with one leg out uh one foot out
of the door
and looking to exit everybody’s looking
for that top
at the true top i don’t think you’re
going to have anybody looking for a top
they’re going to be telling you why it
can go on for years
so always the same game it’s always the
same game
yes it is that’s one thing i’ve been
doing is 48 years and every cycle looks
you know of course they aren’t all the
exactly the same but they sure look
similar on sentiment basis and so i i
think as we move through
uh the summer you’re going to see that
sentiment move up into a much more
bullish
um place yeah i remember remember
in in 1996 alan greenspan he warned
everybody
about the exploration on the stock
market that the nasdaq is in a bubble
already
but this um yeah exploration it actually
went on for three and a half more years
and
i think the the biggest leg up was in in
in late 99
early 2000s so it was the end of the
bubble and
i think the stock markets like doubled
more than doubled back then
so what is your time frame when will
this leg up this melt up this
is this this boom melter boom and end
and
what comes afterwards yeah this you know
i get picked on a lot for this because
i’m always
looking for it to happen sooner but but
the reason i’m
calling for a top this year is because
the slope has gotten so steep you know
you’re into
um you know from last from march of 2020
obviously we’ve had a
you know one double in the nasdaq you
know unprecedented moves in the markets
and so i think we are with this
you know recent consolidation in the
markets
about to enter what i would call the
last parabolic phase
and a parabolic phase um or parabolic
stage
tends to be it covers a lot of ground in
a hurry
um and so it tends to be you know
shorter in duration
so you can have for example you know i’m
calling for 17 000
000 on the nasdaq you can have from here
a 25 move in the nasdaq
and yet say well it could be over this
summer
so that sounds you know unbelievable
but that’s what the last parabolic phase
can be
and so you know 4700 to 5000
on the s p you know 17 000 on the nasdaq
38 or 39 000 on the dow you know you’re
talking about
15 to 25
moves that could happen in a matter of
you know
two or three months and so i have people
on twitter
if you follow me you see that say hey
you said you were gonna
we were gonna top out in the second
quarter you only have a few weeks you
know you’re
wrong and i go i first of all i
i didn’t say that i said it could top
out that soon that’s the earliest it
could top out
um but the market if it you know
stretches out as consolidation that just
stretches out the time
frame but i think we’re getting close
you know whether it’s july or august
or september doesn’t really matter uh
if i were betting today i’d probably say
it could be over by labor day by
u.s labor day which is early september
but
you know the the timing isn’t the
important
thing the point is we’re in the very
last um
stage of a what i call a 39 year
secular bull market so you know which
month
uh is is less important when you’re
you’re 39 years
intimate yeah so um
after this melt up you expect the
biggest bust
in the post world area why and what will
we see
sure the the simple answer we just have
so much
debt that’s been piled on to the global
financial system over
you know the last 50 years and
particularly over the last two decades
uh you’re now um in excess of 250
trillion dollars
in global debt uh and then there’s
quadrillions in notional value of
derivatives
which is another form of leverage
and and i think we’re in a situation
where
inflation’s picking up the fed’s going
to be forced
the fed and central banks around the
world but particularly the fed is going
to be forced
to tighten and i think um
if the economy’s overheating and and
inflation
you know really heating up it’s not
going to be
people hear the words you know
tightening or things like that and they
they kind of think it happens
immediately or you know the the
response happens immediately tightening
takes some time to actually
have an impact so inflation’s going to
be continuing to move up while they’re
tightening so they have to tighten some
more
you know play out over i think you know
three to six months
but um but that tightening
into a very leveraged very extended
financial system um can
can lead to a very quick unwind
and i think leverage as we learned in
business school leverage works
uh to enhance things on the way up
and really exacerbate that the pain on
the way down
so i you know i may prove to be early
again but i continue to say
we could see the bust start in the
fourth quarter
so um that doesn’t mean the whole
thing’s
encapsulated in the fourth quarter of
course but if it starts there
i think i think we’re looking at any
whenever it starts
i think we’re looking at pretty much
2022 to be a
a pretty rough year in the economy
so so i’m wondering actually and many
people as well um
how can we have a deflationary bust when
we see this
crazy spending from governments from
central banks they’re printing like
never before i mentioned it already
so i also believe we will see a
deflationary bust big one the biggest
one we’ve ever seen so
but how can we explain it to the people
to the audience
when we see that government spend so
much money like never before trillions
of dollars actually
sure um so the the fiscal on the
physical side
you know i’ll focus on on the u.s just
because they’re the element in the room
but
you know president biden is pushing
you know trillions and trillions of new
spending
we’ve already you know in the prior
administration
you know the year after the the pandemic
started
you know we were already spending
trillions and then you add on
another you know whatever it’s going to
be 5 or 10 trillion
it’s beyond belief i mean if somebody
told you this five years ago you said
you’d say that’s never going to happen
um but
the thing is most of that spending
it doesn’t get spent in the you know
three months after it’s announced
it’s something that will fuel things
going forward but it’s not
you know it rolls out over time um
depending on what it is you know some of
it is you know when you’re
when you’re cutting checks in terms of
pandemic relief
for people yes that gets spent um but
uh in terms of you know green energy
projects
or infrastructure projects you know
you’re talking
things that are going to play out over
several years and they will influence
the other side of the bus more than
they’ll influence
um you know preventing the bust
and and on the monetary side um you know
what i would say is and again this is
something that i see on twitter a lot is
people think
it’s just a simple equation of the fed
sees
um the economy getting soft and
so they just push a button and out rolls
the money
they have to consider all kinds of
things you know there’s
uh they’re going to be dealing with
inflation and
and massive debt at the same time so
and and there’s a lead and a lag to when
policy has an impact fiscal lag is
longer as i
just explained but even in monetary lag
it you know the money that rolls out
doesn’t really influence the economy for
six or eight or nine months sometimes so
um i guess the answer i would give you
is that
we’re at the end of such an extreme
cycle
that things can happen fast in both
directions so
yes you can have inflation looking like
it’s going through the ceiling
and looking like um you know the economy
is very overheated
and you know fast forward three four
five months
and say oh my god the floor is falling
out of the economy and inflation’s
heading for deflation
so um that’s not normal in normal times
things play out over years
but because of where we are in the cycle
i think
certainly the markets will respond
quickly to tightening
yeah and then that will i think trigger
financial problems across the board so
you know i’d i
guess i’d go back and say march of 2020
is a bit of a microcosm of what i think
is coming
you know we saw a 35 drop in the stock
market
in a matter of three weeks so
we’re going to be at a more extreme
place where you could see a
you know 70 or 80 percent drop in the
market in the course of a few months
so i think it’s going to be fast again
market has passed the economy
will be relatively fast i think the the
bus to be mostly contained within 2022
but it you know so that’s relatively
fast for something that would normally
play out over
years yeah but but a year is an eternity
when you’re going through something like
this so it’s not
it’s not like you know i think investors
minds think
something’s going to happen and it’s
going to happen you know
in like three weeks but the economy will
play out over several quarters
yeah so you think the trigger will be
the tapering from the fed
and what about the repo can the repo
also be a trigger
moment for the markets that the um bust
will come
yeah well repo’s part of rebuild really
part of tapering you know that’s how you
taper
or reverse repost so they’re they’re
actually pulling money out now the fed
is i don’t know exactly what central
banks around the world are doing but the
fed has
has slowed down the money growth um
you know over the course of the last
couple months there’s a lot of talk
about taper there’s a lot of talk about
and and this is what happens a lot of
times the fed behind the scenes actually
done some of that already
so the market’s held up yeah you’ve gone
you’ve gone in so sort of a sideways
direction here up and down
for you know several weeks but
really you’re you’re um you’re working
through
some sort of a taper here i would not be
surprised and again this isn’t a
forecast but just a
a possibility i would not be surprised
if
in the course of the next couple months
we get better news on inflation
yeah um and maybe some weakness in oil
um and that is the trigger for
the rally and bonds and all of a sudden
as as is
typically the case you know wall street
goes
from 100 worrying about taper and
tightening to then 100 worrying about
are we heading into deflation you know
it’s like
you know their their thought process
moves a lot quicker than the actual
events happen but
um but i i that’s what i i would not be
surprised is
that you get the you know the backing
off of that
and so then the worry about gee the
fed’s going to have to
you know tighten and that’s going to
lead to a bust you know
doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen it
just means the worry about it i think
um softens so you expect the downturn in
2022
and um 80 90 percent from the levels
then
right now or in the future yeah
basically i’m saying from from wherever
we peak
if it’s you know 47 800
on the sp if it’s 5 000 that we’re
looking at a 70
to 80 decline in the stock market peak
to trough
okay um so let’s say just for uh easy
math
say we get the 5 000 on the s p you
could get back to a thousand
um and uh yeah that’s
we have not seen that kind of a draw up
since
1929 really you know we’ve seen some
big drops i mean 2008 nine was a big
drop
um you know 1974 was a big drop
1919 yeah and 1987 was a big drop in a
short while
um and of course on the nasdaq you know
the the 2000
uh one you know rollover was big so
so it’s not unprecedented really but in
terms of it
this would be the biggest bear market in
the post-world war two era
and in our lifetime actually yes
right right yeah so what happens after
the bust
so um and how will the central banks
react actually on this
bus yeah so so they will
and that’s you know just to get back to
how can this happen while the central
banks are on
you know on guard against us but
it’s going to take time when this
thing’s unwinding fast
it’s going to take time for them to get
to a right size
policy because if things are
unwinding because of massive leverage
fast then i think we’ll have some
major major bank failures around the
world so it’ll be a whole financial
system that’s melting down
you know they’re usually they showed in
march of 2020 they can put money in
pretty quickly
but they’ve already done a lot of that
so they’re a little cautious about
doing something like that again so it’s
going to be
you know initially as explorer response
and then things start
happening fast on the downside so then
let’s say they print a trillion dollars
or
pump a trillion dollars in a hurry and
it does nothing the
swoon continues they pump a couple more
trillion this wound continues
so it’s going to take time to get to a
right-sized policy
and you know i i have argued that we
could see
the fed go from what will probably be an
eight trillion dollar balance sheet
to a 20 trillion plus you know something
between 20 and 30 trillion
to deal with the bust so you don’t get
there mentally
right now i mean you know the fed if if
you told the fed today they’d be
putting 10 trillion dollars of new money
into the system right from here
they’d say you know that we can’t do
that
but it but in the crisis that’s what
it’ll ultimately lead to
uh over the course of months probably
you know weeks and months
um so so that’s how you get the bus
but then on the other side of it that
money that’s being pumped in if it is 10
or 15 trillion
on the fence you know from the fed
and equal proportionally equal amounts
from every central bank in the world
because it’s going to be a global bust
um you know you can imagine that with a
lag and that lag is probably
you know nine months but with a lag
you start seeing the other side of that
and just like we did after march
2020 and and so again a microcosm you
look at where we’re at now we’re talking
about eight percent gdp in this country
this year
and that’s a result of what happened in
march 2020 and beyond
so you know take that and multiply it
times
you know five or ten and you can have a
similar type situation where all of a
sudden
you come out of that trough and you come
out you know in a pretty hot way
um and next thing you know you’ve got
inflation times 10. you’ve got what we
have right now
except you know it’ll take some time it
won’t happen in the first year but in
probably in the second year of the
recovery you’re going to start moving
you know up the inflation curve very
fast and by 25
26 27 i
i think you’re going to be easily in
double digits and moving towards 20
inflation rates so when you step back
and see what that is
that’s basically saying we had 40 years
of disinflation
from from 20 inflation rate in 1981
um down to zero and ultimately down to
negative inflation
in 2022 and then
within three four five years
you’ve recycled you’ve retraced that
entire
40 year move 40 um 41 42 year move
um and next next thing you know you’re
back at 20
so you’ve done what took you 40 years to
accomplish
is undone in in lesson five that’s what
i think we’re in for
yeah so as i say you know the true gloom
and doomers out there the peter ships of
the world
you know can only see this collapse
and i don’t think they realize that
beyond the collapse you will have one
last cycle
and it’ll be a pretty unbelievable cycle
in terms of
if you’re in if you’re in the industrial
and commodity sectors you will have a
ride like we’ve never had
i mean exactly that’s what i said i
wrote in my new book actually that we
will see
uh the the next decade will be the
decade of commodities of gold of silver
of everything which is limited
and what will this do to the stock
market actually will we see
new highs will the dow jones hit the
hundred thousand
yeah i’m i’m of the belief and i’m
pretty adamant about this
that the big bull market we’ve had the
secular bull market
um that started in 1982 by my
call i sometimes say you could start it
in 1974
because it was a lower low back then
but i used 1982 august of 1982 because
that was the beginning of
um this whole disinflation move um
that led to p multiples going from price
earnings multiples going from
single digits to now mid 20s
um for the market multiple that was
driven by the fact that interest
rates went from a 15 10 year down to
um you know 0.4
you know in the past year and i think
ultimately we’ll see
the 10 year down to zero in the bust
um but that multiple um gets reversed
when you go the other way
because if inflation goes to from
negative to
20 percent interest rates are going to
go from
negative back to you know the 10 year
will go back to 15
if you have rates going back in that
direction to that degree
obviously what’s going to happen to
price earnings multiples they’re going
to con
they’re going to shrink they’re going to
be compressed dramatically
so you’ll go you’ll reverse that 40-year
multiple expansion and now have multiple
contraction through the next cycle so
so then what happens is the overall
market if you’re in an s
p index fund you’re going to not be
happy because
let’s say we get 5 000 this year
the likelihood is in the next bull
market it’ll be a cyclical market by the
secular bear market
in that cyclical bull market starting
you know later in 2022
it will probably top out somewhere below
4 000
so you won’t get near 5 000. you won’t
get near the this secular peak
you’ll have a run from say a thousand on
the s p to
you know 3 000 or 4 000 so you can
triple or quadruple out of the bottom
but you’re you’re looking at the secular
top tier
the likes of which i think serves as a
high water mark
for decades to come not a decade but
decades to come
okay and and so so that means it becomes
more of an active manager’s
cycle where it matters where you put
your money
you know it always matters where you put
your money but we had the benefit in the
last 40 years
of the pe multiple win that are back so
if you were in an index fund
you know you basically did better than
most active managers who were trying to
pick stocks and didn’t
you know weren’t in that um growth area
um in the next cycle it’d be quite the
opposite
you’re gonna have a you’re gonna have a
headwind of ever higher
interest rates pushing multiples down
so then what matters is picking those
stocks
that that have are beneficiaries of
inflation and the industrial recovery
where their earnings can outstrip the
inflation and interest rates
so you know it becomes a much more
selective market
active managers will be in their heyday
and index funds will be the laggards
obviously
for a period of time they’ll be going up
but at some point you’ll be sitting
there if you
if you buy into this buy and hold mantra
and index fund mantra
at some point say in 2024
you’re gonna be sitting there going you
know my index fund is going nowhere
and i have friends who are investing in
commodities who have doubled their money
yeah you know what am i doing yeah yeah
so
in this scenario what will happen to the
u.s dollar
um i believe i’m i’m a bear right now i
believe the dollar is headed
um in the next few months through the
summer
um down to 85 on the
dollar index and perhaps down to 80.
so so it’s somewhere between 80 and 85
and i’m
i’m thinking that be the lower number um
but uh from there in the bust
um so that that happens while we’re in
the melt up
um and then in the bust
i think the dollar as it always has
i think one more time it will be seen as
the place to run for safety
keep in mind we’re looking at we’re
looking at globally
the worst economic contraction
in the post-world war ii era so in the
past 80 years
that means people are going to be
frightened that means they’re going to
say where can i go
my you know everything i look at
including
i think the euro is going to be in real
trouble they’re going to say where can i
run to
and i think they’re going to choose you
know it’s
the best shirt and the dirty laundry
basically you know
they’re going to choose the u.s dollar
not because it’s
doing you know everything’s great in the
u.s because we’re going to be struggling
big time
but they’re still going to say hey this
is still the if anybody’s going to
survive this
it’s going to be the u.s so they will
still run here one more time
um from there though and and i think you
could let’s say you get down to
80 or somewhere between 80 and 85 i
think you could run the dollar up to 120
or higher
um in that during the bus yeah
in that flight to safety trade um and
then
wherever the high water mark is whether
it’s 120 whether it’s 140
uh which is my upside of where it could
go um
from wherever that is in that next
recovery cycle
because the fed’s going to print more
money than any any central bank you know
every central bank’s going to be
printing but we’re going to be the big
big one i think we you know you
what do what is printing what is what is
montezaria ease it’s
bringing currency you know we’re going
to have such a supply of dollars out
there
and and in conjunction with everything
that the world is
trying to accomplish against the dollar
that i think the dollar tops out
wherever that run
is during the bust and i think from
there it’s all downhill for the rest of
the decade
so i would not be surprised see the
dollar sub 50.
um okay uh by the end of the decade
so what um okay this is very interesting
because um
what would this mean for the the status
of the of the of the dollar
as a world currency will china overtake
will china be the number one in the
future or which currency do you see
as number one then yeah let me put it
this way i am not
in the camp that thinks we’re we’re in
some reset this bus
is not going to lead to there’s not
going to be a reset certainly not
immediately
um i am not in the camp that thinks the
dollar loses reserve status in the next
five years
okay okay after that all bets are off
anything
anything in the latter part of the 2020s
anything is possible because we’re going
to be dealing with a worldwide crisis
the likes of which we’ve never seen you
can’t
you can’t have policy like we’ve had
um you know certainly in the last 20
years leading up to this but
what’s what’s gonna what’s happening in
the last year and what’s going to come
in the next couple years is beyond
anything
that any system can withstand
think about it you know i can throw
around numbers on inflation
um and on markets and on you know gdp
how how i can’t i can’t tell you
how um a budget gets financed
that is you know has
um um
debt to the levels i’m talking
you know everybody’s talking about a
debt peak here
you know that this is the super cycle
peak in debt
i go no because of the bust you have one
more leg up
so 250 trillion or slightly above that
now
is probably going to go to something
like 350 or 400 trillion
by the end of the decade and most of
that in the next few years
how do we finance that not just the us
but around the world
with inflation rates and interest rates
in not only double digits but ultimately
high double digits
it can’t happen there’s no equation that
i can come up with
that leads to a much bigger collapse i
mean so
you know i i pretty much say that beyond
and i don’t have any precise timing but
i’m using
i’m saying this you know the the next
cycle’s gonna be a short one
maybe it lasts a decade you know the
rest of this decade maybe it
cut short of that but i believe the
2030s
is going to be a depression many many
times what this world saw
in the 1930s i mean it’s a collapse of
the entire
financial system as far as i can see
because i don’t see any equation that
can solve it
exactly exactly i don’t i don’t really
worry about
gee is china’s you know is that going to
take
the place of the dollar or are we going
to see
a a basket currency hey none of that
matters
exactly we’re talking about something
that is a worldwide collapse
yeah unfortunately i agree my last
best-selling book was called the biggest
crash of all times and that’s what i
actually predicted as well
and i’m really afraid that it will
happen there is no solution within the
system we see
the central banks the politicians have
only one
answer to all these problems it’s
printing money and making more debts but
it never worked it didn’t work in
zimbabwe it didn’t work in argentina or
in the weimar republic so it’s it’s all
the same game again but
we forgot because it’s a next generation
problem so anyhow
how can we prepare for this scenario
for inflation for deflation for this
depression so how to invest how to
protect your wealth and your
your money actually yeah as a strategist
i
i pretty much can only forecast i have
to
shy away from any kind of advice yeah
but what i will say is basically
um you know the the road map i laid out
tells you pretty much if you think about
it
you know the next you know you’ve got a
you’ve got a short window here
um into a top uh
you know the next few months and and
then you’ve got
you know the biggest market decline in
over 80 years coming if i’m right
and then you’ve got a fairly short cycle
driven by industrial and commodity
stocks
and basically you want to end the decade
debt-free financially
sound and and with
as much liquidity as you can have
beyond that you know i i do believe
gold’s going to
10 000 plus and i don’t know what that
plus is is it
is it 12 000 is it 15 pound i don’t know
but by the end of the decade i think
we’ll see gold there we’ll see silver
300 plus and again i don’t know if it’s
400 or 500 whatever that plus
is but um you know they will be
great through this decade um the
question
is what what do you do
in in uh you know
there’s no precedent for what’s coming
in the 2030s in my opinion
and it’s and it’s obviously it’s
financial it’s economic
but it’s also geopolitical and
who knows what comes out of that vacuum
my fear is it’s totalitarian my fear is
that
all the events leading you know that
have been going on for the last 50 years
are leading towards you know this new
world order is all leading towards
communism etc and totalitarianism
so my fear is that’s what fills that
vacuum
wrongly but um who knows i mean i am not
in the camp
there are a lot of people out there that
are wishing for the reset
saying oh yeah let’s have the collapse
now so we can just start over
that’s not how it’s likely to work you
know
uh nobody should be wishing for what’s
coming because i i think it’s
really dire yeah um and i don’t like
saying that because i
you know i tell people focus on the here
and now
um you know take care of your your
details now
um don’t you know compartmentalize don’t
don’t spend your time worrying about
what’s going to come in the 2030s
because it’ll paralyze you
you know you need to do this you know
the things that you can do now
um and focus on the now um
that’s the only way i can forecast if i
if i
you know thought about what i think is
coming if i spent my time thinking about
that
you know i wouldn’t sleep at night so i
think
you really do have to focus on um
you know first the melt up coming and
then the you know the bus that’s coming
and then
know that there is a recovery after that
bus don’t get caught in the
what i call the gloom and doomers that
are telling you we’re down for the count
in the next year you know there is there
is a recovery cycle and the reason there
is a recovery cycle
is simply because in deflation
the fed and the central banks have
virtually
infinite ability to print money yeah and
ultimately if you print enough money you
will get a recovery so
um the problem after the recovery
is that we’re going to have you know
we’re we’re going to be between a rock
and a hard place you’re going to have
hyperinflation and fragility both
and when the fed and so the central
banks will be out of the game
you know they can’t pour more fuel on an
already roaring fire
that’s what happened in the early 80s
you know you
you know if you have hyperinflation the
central banks are out of the game
yeah the reason we can have a recovery
cycle is because the central banks are
going to have infinite ability to
respond to it
because the inflation is lagged you know
that if it
if the money led to inflation in three
months
they couldn’t do it but you print money
today it doesn’t cause inflation for a
couple years or not
certainly not high inflation so so you
have that
freedom to say i’m dealing with what i
see right in front of me
which will be a bust i’m not dealing
with the consequences of that money that
i’m printing
that is going to lead to inflation you
know in the mid 20s
i got to deal with what’s right in front
of me so that’s why you can have a
recovery because they’ll have
you know unfettered ability to print
money
yeah so you mentioned gold and silver as
a safe haven
for the next couple of years till the
end of the decade what about the digital
gold bitcoin
yeah i did not follow bitcoin um i don’t
you know the cryptos to me have not been
tested you’ve got to get through the
to see whether they’re you know what
what
they’re going to be in that obviously
you’ve got risk of government
intervention
all of those things so right now i mean
it and not immediately right now because
it’s selling off but
in in the last many months it’s been a
you know
something that’s moving up so you got a
lot of people jumping on the bandwagon
why are they jumping on it because they
understand it
no they’re jumping on it because it’s
making money
you know it’s no different than a you
know a hot stock
um that is going straight up and we know
what happens when things go parabolic
and then
you know they correct so i’m not i’m i
don’t follow bitcoin so i’m not
making a recommendation one way or the
other
yeah i can’t anyway as a strategist but
but um
i would say just that it’s an untested
thing i think
and and there’s a lot of people out
there claiming
they understand it and etc um
i think those voices will be a lot less
if it continues to sell off because it’s
you know a lot of it’s being
generated by the you know the momentum
um so yeah i i
think yeah what about um commodities
mining stocks stocks in general
um oil will this be a safe
the thing i would say i i do think oil
in the next cycle is going to go to 300
plus which which time frame
um that will be after the bus to be
between
between the end of the bust and the end
of the decade
um and i think you could see it ramp up
pretty quickly so that by
2027 you might be there you might be at
300 that quickly
um you know you’re you’re gonna you’re
gonna hear
peak uh peak oil again as a
as a mantra out there yeah in not too
many years
because it’s even worse than ever
because obviously
with um the policies coming out of the
biden administration
um they’re limiting supply um
and you know we’re we’re gonna we’re
gonna see an
oil what we’ve seen in lumber what we’ve
seen
in um you know the metal steel and
copper and all of those where all of a
sudden
you go from just in time inventory and
demand roaring away
and what we’ve seen in semiconductor
chips you know all of a sudden there’s a
shortage
because we we plan for a much less of a
demand
picture than we’re getting i think
that’s what you’ll see in the next cycle
because think if if the world is going
to be as i’ve said
the next cycle is going to be an
industrial driven
cycle we haven’t had an industrially
driven
cycle um x china since
um since the uh 1970s
so you know the last 40 years has been
consumer driven
if we go to a industrially driven cycle
that demands a lot more energy and
particularly a lot more fossil fuels so
you can see oil i think demand go
through the roof
and supply is just not going to be there
so price give you know price goes
straight up
um the the thing that i do want to
question people is
just remember i i use the analogy which
you know in this country anyway of
standing on
the um south peak
of the grand canyon and looking across
to the north peak
and thinking it’s a straight line across
um
and not realizing there’s this big
canyon in between
well that’s like buying you know
the um commodities
this year and i’m not saying right now
is the top because they can go higher
with into the top but but you know
buying the commodities here in the next
few months thinking it’s a straight line
to the commodity cycle
in you know 2023 and beyond
that bust in between there’s a big
canyon i think you’re going to see
commodities get hit very hard during the
bus because demand is going to fall
through the floor
so it’s just you know they’re not a safe
haven in the bus
long term they are definitely have a lot
more room
upside um to go but just know it’s not a
straight line
um that that’d be my only message there
perfect
david it was incredible interview i
thank you very much already i’ve got
one last question and this is something
totally different than financial advice
or um
macroeconomics and we had now our dark
outlook for the future so but what is
for you for david hunter what is the
meaning of life
huh wow um gotcha
i i will say this and the you know the
older you got
the more you wish you realized this more
when you were younger
but um you know it’s it’s
something that people say when you leave
this earth you know it’s not going to be
you know those stock picks i made or the
forecasts i made that matter
what matters your your real legacy is
what you leave behind in terms of
what you teach children um you know
what you teach your grandchildren or the
times you spent with your grandchildren
the memories they have of you
uh hopefully good ones um and
to me i think if people could learn this
lesson earlier it’s always
good i mean i did know it all the way up
to some degree but i will say it’s you
know
being 69 years old now i really
pray you know i enjoy and treasure those
moments with
my grandkids and seeing the innocence in
their eyes you know and things like that
so
that’s to me that’s the meaning of life
not this stuff this stuff
kind of keeps us going it’s it’s our
hobbies or our livelihoods but
it’s it’s really your families that
matter yeah
true so hey i won’t stop you go and play
with your grandkids so where can people
find more about you
i’m sure the best way to um find
my work is on twitter i’m on there if
not every day
several times a week um you know
tweeting uh my views so
uh if you go to at dave h contrarian
uh you’ll find me there right
i will put a link in the in the show
notes of course and i recommend
everybody who’s watching this to follow
david it’s definitely worth it
yeah thank you and i i do write a um
quarterly investment
letter and i it’s it’s you know by
subscription so there is a cost to it
if people have an interest they can
direct message me on twitter and i’ll
give you details
um but um yeah i um
those are kind of my two outlets cool
cool yeah we will have you back
definitely
hopefully soon and have fun playing with
your kids and i enjoyed it a lot it was
an honor to have you on my show and yeah
take care stay healthy and
yeah the best to you yeah same to you
Marc and thanks for having me on