Rowan Relton provides risk management and consulting services to customers across Australia, is here to discuss about risk management in trading.

Risk Management Techniques in Trading

Darryl Scriven, Clarkson University and Robyn Hannigan, Clarkson University

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Have you ever heard the expression “No guts, no glory”? Making your own business starts with guts. If you’re someone who likes to take risks and has great ideas, starting your own company could be for you.

There are different kinds of companies that you could start. You could start a company producing something you invented, like an iPhone or a mobile app. Or you could start a company that licenses the brand of an existing company, such as McDonald’s or Subway. Companies like this are called franchises.

Between the two of us, we’ve started mobile gaming companies, owned franchises and created biotechnology companies from patented inventions. One of us is an analytical geochemist – someone who measures chemicals – with inventions including a chemical detector that measures metals in air, which in turn allows us to find and remove bad metals like mercury from smokestacks. This and other inventions were spun into a new company with her students. The other of us has started companies that provide everyday goods and services, from building houses to hosting birthday parties. Even though the companies we started are very different, both of us are what are called entrepreneurs.

Entrepreneurs are those who start a company, identify needs and bring together the people, materials and money required to meet that need. Everything you buy is to meet a need you have, and somewhere, some entrepreneur started a company to meet your needs. Whether you’re going solo or have a team, you can be an entrepreneur and start your own company.

Starting your own company

There are five basic steps to starting your own company:

1) Need: The first step is identifying the want or need you intend to meet. What do you hear people saying that they love? What do they complain about? What do you always say would make life easier? Once you figure out what people are yearning for and who exactly your target customers are through some market research, then you’re ready for the next step in starting your company.

2) Idea: The second step in starting a company is coming up with an idea that meets the want or need you identified. Is it an invention that takes out the garbage? Is it a better hamburger? A great idea that meets a want or a need can be complex, like a smartphone, or it can be simple, like bottled water.

3) Product: The third step is figuring out how you will provide the product or service. Will you create and sell a new kind of hamburger, or will you offer an existing kind of hamburger where it isn’t currently available? If you plan to create and sell something all on your own, you will found a startup. If you plan to offer something that already exists in a new area, you would buy into a franchise.

4) Setup: Next, you’ll set up your company. There are many resources available to help you do this. The first thing you will do as a startup is become a legal entity, or a business on paper. This step may require an attorney, because there are many structures your business could take, and you will need to choose the right one. Then off to the bank to set up an account so you can start receiving money and paying your bills.

5) Market: Lastly, you will need to market your product. Whether you find your own customers or hire someone to do it, you’ll need to let people know that you have a product or service that is worth paying for. You can have the best company in the world that makes the best products, but your potential customers have to know about it in order for you to be successful. With all of this information in mind, you’ll write a business plan that provides the details of your product or service as well as your plan for funding and growth. The plan answers all of the questions of who, what, where, why and how. The more detailed this information is, the more likely someone will want to invest in your ideas and help grow your company.

Before we dreamed of being entrepreneurs or starting companies, we were kids who were curious, asked lots of questions and wanted to make the world a better place. Starting a company is a great way to do that. The company you start may literally change the world.

So don’t delay; the world is waiting for you.

Darryl Scriven, Dean of Arts & Sciences, Clarkson University and Robyn Hannigan, Provost, Clarkson University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Commodity Supercycle

Our partner Marc Friedrich presents a new video series “The Commodity Supercycle” on his Youtube channel.

The term supercycle means the longest period, or wave, in the growth of a financial market as described by the Elliott wave principle, originally conceived and formulated by Ralph Nelson Elliott.

Marc Friedrich believes that a new supercycle has already started and calls it “The Commodity Supercycle”.

In a series of video interviews, Marc will give deep insights to commodity trading, timing and “financial intelligence”:

As a result of the Corona crisis, central banks have pumped more money into the system than ever before. In parallel, governments have put together fiscal packages at historically unprecedented levels to buffer the recession and the effects of the crisis. All of this has caused prices for building materials, energy and raw materials to soar and for the first time in 40 years we are seeing strong inflation. Marc Friedrich believes that we are seeing a turning point and are at the beginning of a Commodity Supercycle that holds huge opportunities.

With his new series “The Commodity Supercycle” Marc Friedrich has once again gathered the brightest and most famous minds in the world of finance and commodities to recognize and seize the great opportunities now. A series, which looks for its equals in Germany, yes in Europe. Financial intelligence of the Champions League!

Marc Friedrich contact details

► Website: https://www.marc-friedrich.de

► Newsletter: https://friedrich-partner.de/newsletter

► Friedrich & Partner: https://www.friedrich-partner.de

► Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/marcfriedrich7

► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marcfriedri…

► Telegram: https://t.me/friedrichpartner

Marcelo Lopez Invests 70 % in Uranium

The second interview in this new video series is with Marcelo Lopez:

Marcelo Lopez is one of the best known commodity hedge fund managers in the world. He has been active in the uranium market for several years and sees it as the biggest investment opportunity of his life. What attracts him to it and how he reacts to criticism, you will learn in this new episode of the Commodity Supercycle!

Marcelo Lopez on Twitter: https://twitter.com/malopez1975

Complete video transcript (auto-generated):

wow

welcome to a new episode of the

commodity

super cycle it’s 6 00 a.m in sydney and

10 p.m in germany marcelo got up

really early and i stayed up very late

i’m tired i can tell you that

so we do everything to bring you the

best content available on

commodities on earth actually so martin

lopez is a guy who bets his savings and

career

on uranium yes you heard it right

i think you even mentioned around 70

percent you are

invested in uranium aren’t you marcelo

yep

uh well it was 70 when i started today

is way more than that because of the

100 year price appreciation yeah so

additionally you stated that the market

cap of

all uranium equities amounts to roughly

20 billion dollars which is ridiculous

you know that an investor can buy all of

a

key power source for about 135th in the

valuation of tesla which is crazy

so yeah this is marcelo lopez from

brazil right now in australia so please

give us a little background about you

who is marcelo lopez

sure well first of all thanks mark for

for the invitations a pleasure to to be

talking to you

i am a mechanical engineer and i i did a

trainee program at lights bank

in brazil in the late 90s lloyds was an

investment bank at that time

and and i always like the stock market

so i went to a brokerage company close

by every lunch time to

to learn more about stocks so

when when the russian crisis happened

and in the long term capital management

collapsed uh brazilian stocks crashed

big time

yeah and i thought it was the best time

to start an investment fund focused on

brazilian equities

so i resigned from lights bank and

started my first investment fund at the

end of 1998.

uh well and i did really well with this

fund it was a huge success it returned

over 200

to investors in in just over a year year

and a half maybe

um and i tell people it wasn’t because

it was a genius but

the the opportunity was just too great

yeah

and uh and soon i believe we’re going to

talk about another great opportunity

uh just before our eyes but um anyway

at that time some brazilian equities

were trading for less than the cash they

had in the bank

and and i’m talking about profitable

companies that pay double digit

dividends and and all that so

um after after this fund i i thought the

market was

was a bit toppy and i needed more

knowledge so i

returned the money to investors and i

went to spain to do

my mba and after the mba i went to

finland to do a specialization in

finance and after finland

i moved to london and i worked for a big

hedge fund focused on emerging markets

called gartmore

until the end of 2006.

and my job at garthmore was to to look

for opportunities in emerging markets to

invest in

and at the end of 2006 i believe i’d

have found another

a miscible investment opportunity which

was real estate in brazil

so again i left my job and decided to

invest in real estate in brazil and i

co-founded a company that meant to grow

into one of the biggest

real estate firms in brazil today this

company is owned by julius bayer and

and as i said it’s it’s one of the

biggest real estate

asset management companies in the

country and uh

in 2013 i decided to go back to the

financial markets and i founded l2

capital

an asset management company so the idea

was to look for opportunities but

instead of focusing on emerging markets

we would look for opportunities

and asymmetric asymmetric investment

themes

uh globally and well i believe we’re

going to talk about nuclear energy and

obviously the

the metal that powers those reactors

which is to me

the best investment opportunity i’ve

seen in my life

yeah and you mentioned also the most

symmetric trait you’ve ever seen in your

life but

before we um get to uranium so how did

you end up in australia actually um

how is this situation there right now

with covet and everything

so tell us something oh i think well

i mean sydney new south wales and and uh

well it looks like kofi didn’t show up

here at all life of go

goes on as normal people are uh going to

the shopping malls going to the

restaurants

uh kids are at school i think school was

suspended last year for a couple of

weeks if that but

um life is normal i can tell you that

yeah it’s a blessed country and you you

ended up in australia because

of the yellow cake this was this was

personal reasons we

we ended up moving here a few years ago

and uh

we we stay here personal reasons all

right okay perfect so

yeah let’s um dip into the uranium

sector

so um um remember we’re talking to

german audience

and and we shut down all no we will shut

down all nuclear plants so

this is something totally totally crazy

so give us an elevator pitch

um why are you so excited about uranium

and nuclear power

sure um well let me talk about the

benefits of nuclear

energy because as you mentioned germany

has decided to shut down all its nuclear

power plants

and i think it’s important for people to

know

what the benefits are so they can at

least weigh the situation right

so nuclear energy is it’s

clean energy and it provides reliable

abundant and safe energy unlike most

people

would think nuclear energy is just the

best and most advanced form of energy

ever invented so if the world is really

serious about the environment

nuclear must be a part of the solution

the idea is very simple though the

execution is complex

but you basically um split an atom and

it generates energy to hit water that

powers a turbine that will generate

electricity

so um if if you compare

uh nuclear to other other sources of

energy

uh you know nuclear energy just

killed all of them uh it’s it’s

it in any way shape or form you look at

it it’s uh it’s

better than the other forms of energy it

has more energy density

so and i have even these noted here

just to just to to to mention to you

because i knew we’re going to talk about

it

but uh firewood when you when you

burn firewood you generate 16 mega jaws

per kilo

yeah when you burn coal you generate 23

mega jaws per kilogram

diesel it’s a big improvement it’s 44

mega jaws per kilogram

and uranium is 3 900

giga jaws per kilo so

it’s almost 100 000 times better

than the others in in terms of safety

which is an item that mo

most people would like to discuss yeah

nuclear gain comes way ahead

now i i actually use this data in my

presentation to investors and i got it

from the u.s

energy information administration um

you you have an in on one extreme code

with a hundred thousand

deaths per trillion kilowatt hour

and on the other one you have a nuclear

with with less than a hundred

so the the comparison is cruel and uh

i’m sure we we we we end up going to

talk about the two major accidents

fukushima and

uh but let me just talk about the other

things before

uh if if the subject is reliability uh

surprise surprise

nuclear also comes ahead nuclear

reactors work

most of the time with planned shutdowns

for refueling and maintenance

which which is now happening every 18

months in a few reactors

so a nuclear reactor can provide clean

energy with a capacitive factor

of over 93 percent

natural gas is less than 60 percent co

is less than 50

wind is just over 30 percent and solar

energy has a capacity factor of

25 percent yeah it’s that

people think that the so-called

renewables

uh wind and solar will be able to save

the planets but

they’re highly unreliable they need a

backup

and you know as the sun does not shine

all the time the wind does not

blow all the time and you would be

surprised

monk to know that the big oil companies

like

total bp chevron and all that

they spend billions of dollars in

supporting solar and wind

and you might ask why is that aren’t

they

shooting themselves in the foot but

the reality is that they know the

so-called renewables

are not reliable and they need a backup

in this case a dirty backup

being natural gas or or oil or or even

coal

so the more money people spend on these

so-called renewables

more power they will give to fossil fuel

producers

um now let’s let’s talk about land

requirements

uh solar panel solar panels in general

need an

area of up to 400 times bigger

to produce the same amount of

electricity as nuclear

they demand 18 times more steel and

produced

300 times more hazardous waste

imagine the impact of this kind of

construction in the natural landscape

the human footprint is is devastating

and not only steel you spend way more on

concrete on

rare earth and in other materials uh

making it not only a pollutant but also

expensive

and uh and and i’m not even gonna

mention that wind and solar uh

rely heavily on government subsidies uh

the

they are still uh pollutants um

and uh you know the wind can can can

also

kill rare birds bats uh they can be

noisy

the their productivity decays very

rapidly with the passage of time

and they have to be disposed somewhere

creating more toxic

rubbish as far as i know there’s not a

proper place for this for these items to

be disposed

um another thing people think that they

will use batteries and that will solve

all the problems

but but the issue here is base load it

doesn’t matter if your car runs on

batteries

if you recharge those batteries using

the electricity that was produced

using coal you are actually polluting

more

way more i should say you you’d better

off of owning a a diesel car

yeah um now i i said to people that the

the so-called renewables wind and solar

are unreliable and

what what many people do not realize is

that it

increases the cost of electricity and

increases the risks to the grid

so bear with me let me try to explain

this a little further

just to to to make it easy so sorry

about the oversimplification

but electricity produced

now is being consumed now it can be

consumed tomorrow next week or next

month it has to be consumed now

so imagine a couple of scenarios the

first one we need electricity now

but the wind is not blowing the sun is

not shining

so what are we going to do well we have

to turn on the backup

which is normally gas or co so the idea

that you’re not polluting

just go through the window uh but

there’s a different scenario which is

not good either and no one talks about

and that’s when you don’t need

electricity now but the wind is blowing

and the sun is shining

so now you have to dispose this

electricity somehow and

you you first you have to shut down

whatever source of energy is feeding the

grids

and you have to do it in a haste so

imagine you have a coal plant or gas or

even nuclear

they have to shut down so the grid can

use electricity provided by the

so-called renewables

in california and i’m pretty sure it has

happened in germany too

a few times but you might be able to

to check this and you know uh

but they they um they needed

electrician at a certain period

of time and the sun was not shining and

the wind was not blowing

so they have to buy expensive

electricity from nearby states

france even worse when they can produce

electricity from

from these so-called renewables and they

don’t need electricity

they have to sell it to someone else or

what is going on

i have to interrupt you in in in the

southern part of germany we even

paid other countries that they would

take our electricity

because we didn’t want to danger the

grid you know

it’s crazy that’s exactly what i was

going to say it’s a complete nonsense in

california it happens over and over

again

and people don’t understand why the

electricity bills are so high and

you know it’s and and the pollution goes

up too because the backup has to be

turned on

and and you increase the risk to the

grid

so that anyway mark whichever way you

look at nuclear energy it comes

way ahead of the others now the feud

that

nuclear really loses is the information

battle

there’s a lot of misinformation out

there and people just don’t

they just don’t want to see it and

that’s the problem and

um i believe people have to educate

themselves and and

that’s what we’re doing here right we’re

bringing new information so people can

think about those issues

uh independently and stop accepting

being spoon-fed misleading information

yeah that’s why i was so keen talking to

you know to give the people financial

intelligence to have an insider who is

really deep in the

in the topic and we talk about some some

points

somebody else never mentioned you know

the media or the politicians

sure listen i i for once i was against

nuclear energy i thought those

nuclear reactors could explode and kill

everyone around but i’m here

but they they only explode on tv series

yeah yeah so yeah but you know that the

critics always come with

channel bill they come with fukushima so

what do you reply to them if they say

hey but they can blow off they can

explode and can waste all the country

and

all the people yeah yeah well

they do say that actually but you know

people talk about fukushima and and i

say that fukushima is the best

reason why we need to have more nuclear

reactors

almost 20 000 people died because of the

tsunami

around 1 000 people died because of the

evacuation process

and no one zero had any injuries

because of the nuclear accident and it

somehow acts uh

you know it’s interesting to see because

fukushima just entered the map because

of the nuclear accident

but the nuclear accident didn’t hurt

anyone

actually nuclear reactors are so safe in

japan that

and and they are so well built that when

there’s an earthquake

people move move closer to to to nuclear

reactors

now if we talk about chernobyl which was

the only nuclear accident in

history with victims and we look at the

facts

we are also going to come to the same

conclusion

um you know now a couple of years ago i

interviewed dr

jerry thomas who is a phd and post

doctor in pathology

and she works for the imperial college

in london and it was a great

conversation the the

the podcast is actually available in in

our website to

whoever is interested and i really like

to talk to dr thomas because

she knows a lot about cancer molecular

pathology

and the health effects of radiation so

she told me that uh like many of her

friends

back then she she she was left wing and

uh she was leaning towards

well she was actually she has a lot of

prejudice

against nuclear energy so she decided to

write about the horbones that

was nuclear energy and after her

research

she fell in love with it uh now she

travels around the world to talk to

everyone about the benefits of nuclear

energy

so here are the facts um 134 people

died because of the fire so um

these were people who were there at the

time of the accident

or or people who arrived soon after or

you know

in in these people who suffered acute

radiation exposure or got

burned um the

the who the the world health

organization

estimates that the increase in

thyroid cancer will be around 16

000 people by 2006

so the accident happened more than 30

years ago and they’re projecting another

the 44 40 44 years ahead

uh if we take these numbers as as

reality

and and there is dispute around them but

we know that thyroid cancer is the

easiest curable form of cancer

on average only one percent of the

patients die because of feds

so the the total death count will get to

160 people

overall over all this period of time

and curiously enough thyroid cancer

treatment is based on doses of radiation

so there’s a story of what happened and

what happened

and the story is obviously way more

interesting i i’ve heard this this

phrase a while ago

and i love it and it it goes like that

don’t you

hate when the facts get in the way of a

great story

now people claim that nuclear energy has

uh has it is bad but it actually has

saved

millions of life by preventing the

burning of fossil fuels

uh you you probably heard me saying that

before but

i like to compare it to sharks and

insects

insects kill more than six hundred

thousand people every year on

average around the world being made from

uh transmission of diseases

allergies or poison whatever

um but in in if we if we talk about

sharks now

guess how many people on average around

the world

die every year because of a shark attack

i think it’s five or fifteen ten

yeah look hey i was good yeah you were

very good

very good but you know when when it

happens oh it’s a big thing people

closely

come up with all sorts of proposals and

new regulations

put nets on the sea to protect swimmers

and all that

but they are quite tranquil around

insects that kill 60

000 people 60 000 times more people

yeah it’s their reality versus the the

perception right

and uh in in and also i think there’s a

high association between

nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs which

are complete

different things but but people get

scared and

i believe the first step is to educate

people

yeah i think germany uh suffers uh

with this way more than other countries

for historical reasons

and and and obviously this waited a lot

on on german sentiment

and uh well please correct me if i’m

wrong uh but it’s just my opinion

yeah but no not yep

you’re not wrong you’re not wrong it’s

it’s it’s it’s insanity what happened

here because of fukushima

and i hope we step back from this

idiotic

um plan to switch off all the nuclear

plants and get in more dependency

from other countries and by expensive

electricity from

czech republic or france and uh they

they create this electricity from coal

or oil or gas

or nuclear power you know that’s the

thing and

yeah which i just hope we will um step

back so

which which countries are the most

focused ones on nuclear energy

well i think the growth is coming from

uh

china mostly but asia asia is

where the action is happening people

tend to look at

the western world and and think that

nuclear is a dying industry

yeah but it’s actually a growth industry

and it’s it’s

booming in asia china is building

a fleet of nuclear reactors if um uh

you know the they are building on on

average

uh six nuclear reactors every year and

they’re going to

keep up this growth until 2025 and then

they

they will scale it up yeah

according to the sinchwa university

uh china has to build uh has to grow its

nuclear fleet

by 382 percent uh by

2060 to achieve the goals that they want

to achieve to be carbon neutral

so it’s an impressive growth and uh same

thing with india russia

uh you know uh turkey saudi arabia

brazil argentina

egypt many of these countries are

building nuclear reactors

but people tend to focus on on on on

europe and

in the u.s and think it’s a dying

industry it’s not it’s a growth industry

yeah yeah definitely is so um and it’s

necessary for the

green revolution we have now to to um

reach the goals of the paris treaty we

need actually

um nuclear energy so i think i hope

germany will see this as well soon so

um i’ve got two big concerns we already

talked about security because all the

critics bring always the security

um point and of course the waste the the

radio

tech active waste so and please give me

your thoughts on this

sure uh no that’s a that’s a that’s a

good point it’s worth mentioning and and

talking about

nuclear waste i i think this is one of

the

sale points for nuclear honestly and and

by a mile first of all let’s clarify

this we shouldn’t call it

waste because the vast majority of the

spent fuel can be

recycle and enter the the fuel cycle

again

so let’s call it spent fuel now if you

put together

uh the the the dispensed view

producing the world since the 60s until

today

you won’t be able to fill two soccer

fields

because uranium has a very high energy

density

the spent fuel is minuscule compared to

other sources

another very important thing uh you tell

me what other source of energy produces

waste that is contained where’s the

waste from from the coal plants or or

the gas glands

it’s in our lungs and and seven million

people die

every year because of pollution more

people dying in japan uh of pollution

uh caused by the closure of the nuclear

reactors than because of the accident

itself

and and they are continuing to die

thanks to fossil fuels

now um you know so to to to have a

waste that is minimal secured and

contained

to me is one of the selling points of

nuclear energy

yeah so what about the the progress in

technology there are new

forms of of um what’s it called i think

mini reactors so can you tell us

something about that

pardon me small modular reactors yeah

exactly

exactly yeah a small modular reactors

are

a type of reactor that is uh smaller and

manufactured somewhere and assembled uh

on site

uh so this one has a few

advantages over the normal nuclear

reactor

so first of all you need less capital to

assemble one

uh that’s that’s pretty good

secondly they are considered way safer

than normal designs

and thirdly they can be put in places

that cannot accommodate

big nuclear reactors and and i think

people will accept them more

they they they are scalable too meaning

that you can build more than one of

these

smrs in in the same place increasing the

power generation capacity

uh oh in in in in the time you spent in

construction is also much less

says let’s say you call let’s say you

you previewed uh a few parts of uh

of of the nuclear reactor and you just

assembled them on site

now uh uh with smrs i believe we’re

going to achieve a much bigger

proportion of

nuclear energy producing the world this

is because

people’s acceptance to small nuclear

reactors

will be greater than the acceptance of

acceptance of of the of the big ones

okay uh

besides for for entrepreneurs the cost

will go down and it makes it

and makes the returns more more enticing

um you know it’s it’s uh it it should be

commercial viable uh

from you know 2027 onwards so we’re

talking about the second half of this

decade

okay cool what about thorium people talk

about

thorium yeah there hasn’t been any

commercial

viable reactor the powered light that i

know of so i

you know thorium has been um talked

about for many years

but you know that again it’s uh

okay it’s a technology that’s years

ahead years

if it ever comes to to to to be

developed

what about the reactors who can use

and the radio active waste again

to create energy yeah well that that

that would be great for for for it

because the

the spent fuel will be recycled and it

happens already in

certain parts of the world france and

and uh russia japan as well

they they they can’t uh they can’t the

the spent fuel

and then put it back onto the nuclear

fuel cycle and and

and reuse that um and and

i think uh the bill gates is trying to

develop this technology a few other

other companies are doing the same that

that would be awesome for for the world

can you imagine that

yeah sure it would be like a perpetua

mobile so it would be like never ending

that would be great

so okay let’s talk about the price why

is it so damn low the iranian price

dropped

60 80 90 percent even over the last

decade

so how is it possible yeah well

uh market was uh it was a perfect storm

for miners

everything that could go wrong for them

went wrong

um fukushima was obviously the most

impactful event

so um after the accident japan shut down

all its nuclear reactors

so the world lost a big buyer of uranium

and gained a seller

uh you know because japan started

selling part of its uh

inventory yes it was taking delivery of

some of the contracts but it was also

active in the spot market

and uh because japan has a lot of

inventories it didn’t help us

at all and and miners didn’t stop mining

at that time they they thought japan

would be back online very quickly and

they

kept on producing shooting themselves in

the foot and

obviously didn’t help the prices at all

uh besides the sentiment was very

negative at that time

uh you know as as as i mentioned japan

shut down all its nuclear reactors

spain said they were going to shut down

all its nuclear reactors to by 2020

germany 2022

belgium in 2025 and

and on top of that uh there were a lot

of pressure from environmental groups

for politicians to either shut down

existing reactors or at least not not

let any more be built

um in addition kazakhstan was ramping up

its production

in the beginning of the century

kazakhstan was responsible for less than

10

of the global uranium supply and now

it’s around 40 percent

uh moreover there was a program in place

called megatones to megawatts in which

russia was dismantling part of its

nuclear arsenal

uh they were down blending the the

highly enriched uranium and selling it

to

to the us um and it was good for russia

because they made some money

and it was great for the u.s because

they not only avoided that this highly

enriched uranium fell into the hands of

a

rogue government or a terrorist

organization but they also had plenty of

you of

you know cheap uranium to power uh their

their nuclear reactors

it was just bad for the miners uh and

and

last but not least secondary supply and

under feeding were increasing

uh now do you want me to explain what

underfeeding is or

yes please just short introduction yeah

okay so

um uranium is found in different

isotopes

and um the the most common is the 238

which corresponds to around 99.3 percent

uh uranium-235 corresponds to 0.7

and that’s the one we want because it’s

unstable you can bombard the nucleus it

can explode and generate all the energy

so when people say that they’re going to

win rich uranium

enrich uranium is just to increase the

content of the isotope two three five in

the mix

from 0.7 to three four five percent

whatever the nuclear reactor needs yeah

and and if you want to to build a

nuclear bomb you can

you can enrich uranium to 90 plus

but the the way you do it today is using

centrifuges

uh this centrifuges spin at high speeds

and they cannot stop

so these enrichers have an incentive to

do what’s called

under feeding and underfeeding occurs

when you feed less uranium into the

centrifuges

hence the name underfeeding yeah but

these centrifuges spin for longer

and they produce the same amount of

enriched uranium using

less uranium and that uranium that they

didn’t use

is theirs so they can go to the mark and

sell this uranium

as long as it makes commercial and

financial sense to them

so it is as if they create a whole new

mind out of the blue

um now i i have to to use this method

for because it it

it it helped me a lot to to understand

underfeeding when i started uh

imagine a miner has been a producer of

oranges

yeah the enriques will be the guy who’s

going to squeeze the oranges

and the nuclear reactors are the ones

who are going to drink the orange juice

so the thing works like that uh the

miners uh

give them richards four oranges the

richards

squeeze these oranges and give the

nuclear reactor one glass of orange

juice

now uh imagine suddenly that these

enrichers have a lot of

of unused capacity uh it was a mixture

of new technology with the centrifuges

and and less demands

uh remember japan was offline and many

other projects got suspended

so now they can take their time to

squeeze the oranges

and they realize they don’t need to

squeeze four oranges they can ski

squeeze really well three oranges

and they can produce the same amount of

orange juice

and that one orange that’s left is

theirs so they can

just go to the market and and sell this

extra orange and this extra orange

represents underfeeding

um so as i mentioned it was the perfect

star

uh storm for miners um i mentioned

japan which was obviously the biggest

event uh the narrative kazakhstan under

feeding

uh uh the the miners lack of discipline

in in the megatons to megawatts program

so where are we now well

now we are in a whole new world uh japan

is back online there are nine reactors

that have restarted

three more should restart this year and

14 more are waiting for approval to get

started

the program megatons to megawatts is

over it ended in 2013 and i

doubt we are going to see anything like

it over the next few years

so this is the reason why you think this

is the biggest investing

opportunity of our lifetime so you

expect the price will

go up it is it is um

i it’s it’s the

biggest opportunity i’ve ever seen in my

life in terms of risk return

it’s it’s it’s what do you think where

will the price go

in the next five years in the next

decade

well listen i i don’t know where the

price is going to go but i know it has

where it has to go and we mapped every

single mine on the planet

and the pot the price has to go to at

least

60 dollars a pound it’s double

right now we’re at 30 32

i’m sorry we are at 30 or 32 i think

but double at least there you go at

least

double from here to to give miners

incentives to

to to start producing again um

you know it’s it in and what what’s the

incentive for a miner to

to produce something for 45 50 or even

60

if they can only be sold for for you

know 30 35

no one’s going to start a mining uh or

or even keep in mind in producing

under those circumstances yeah

so the usual investment and pitch goes

as follow actually

the demand for uranium is so high and

most iranian miners

need a price over 60 bucks so in order

to produce profitable

surprises have to go up actually so

otherwise

most of them will go out of business so

but

is this really the case right now two of

the largest uranium mines

run by carmeko are shut down cigar lake

and make other river what have happens

if they come back online will prices

stay low

yeah uh well cigar lake is actually back

online

that’s cool but uh the prices listen the

the the let’s put this into perspective

so last year uh the world consumed

almost 180 million pounds of uranium

yeah and it reduced via uh via the

miners

uh around 120 million pounds so there’s

a huge gap

between primary production and um

and and consumption so even if casaton

prom

ramp up production if chemical bring

back macarthur river and

and all that there’s still not enough

uranium and remember uh cigar lake which

is the biggest mining operation today

we will we’ll get to the end of its um

life in another seven years and well

where’s the replacement

and who’s gonna come up to to to fill up

the gap

yeah there’s not many projects that look

like they’re they’re gonna be ready by

then

wow okay but marcelo miners are right

now

seem a little bit overvalued because um

yeah especially a lot of the small

developers

have risen to a market cap of a couple

of hundred million dollars

so um even they are like 10 years away

from a production

so what what are your thoughts on this

um did people miss the boat for an

investment in the sector or were still

early yeah i i i still believe we are

very early in the cycle

share prices have gone up a lot as you

mentioned our fund is up by almost 450

percent over the last uh 12 months

but i still think it’s very early in the

cycle there’s going to be a lot of

volatility it’s not going to be like

that smooth ramp up

never is but but you listen you you

mentioned this in the

in the beginning of our conversation

if you you you can pretty much buy all

the listed companies for

for for around 25 billion dollars and

you know it it’s funny because i’ve been

saying that since i started the fund you

say well listen you can buy all

listed companies for uh eight billion

dollars oh yeah

the funny thing is you know when i i

wrote a whole chapter in my

new best-selling book about uranium and

when i started researching it

the whole market cap of the uranium

sector was 30 billion dollars

and at the end when i published a book

it was like 18 billion but still

super cheap if you look back in at the

last uranium bull market

we had a market um cap of i think over

100 billion

so we dropped 140 yeah even even more

yeah

so we dropped like 90 percent and

it’s still crazy so what is for you the

best way to invest into the sector

well there are a few ways that people

can get exposure to

to to the sector they’re they’re the

physical funds uh

they can buy uh yellow cake in london

they can buy uh

upc and and i can talk about upc a bit

more because there’s

some interesting developments happening

there sure please

um so if they don’t want to run the risk

of the miners uh the operational risk

and all that

they they can buy the physical the metal

they can have exposure to the physical

metal that yeah

via this these two funds they can buy

the etfs in the sector

which i caution people to look at them

before they are not as as

straightforward as most of us would hope

um there are they’re the miners

themselves so people can

can do a little bit of work and decide

which ones are the best ones and and buy

and again i would caution people because

most of the uranium

shares that are traded today will never

produce a nouns of uranium

there’s a lot of promotion going on so i

urge people to look carefully into

uh into this this uh shares

and there’s obviously the the the funds

like uh

like mine that look for the best

investment opportunities within that

sector

and let’s talk about your fund is it

possible to buy it in europe or in

germany

yeah yeah uh it is uh the fund is closed

now

uh we open every quarter so

it will be open towards the end of this

month

uh the the minimum investment is 250 000

u.s dollars

and everyone can can buy into the fund

but u.s investors unfortunately

[Music]

well so what are the costs what what are

the costs of the fund

like it’s one and a half percent per

annum and 20 percent of uh

of performance fee okay all right um

what’s your biggest holding right now

uh sorry mark we we don’t talk about uh

okay

about individual stocks or holdings or

anything okay

yeah okay i i can imagine but okay so

and um what about

would you recommend people to buy um um

yeah mining stocks directly like a major

or mid tier or junior or would you say

nah go better to a fund or buy your etf

sure um well

well i don’t recommend anyone to do

anything i’m not i’m i’m not in the

above making recommendations and and i

can’t make a recommendation

but for people who would like to to look

more into the sector

uh i i think the the biggest premium

are on the on the the biggest rewards i

should say

are uh in the miners uh the etfs i

you know uh they they have a few

positions that i wouldn’t

that i don’t agree with and uh some of

them have positions that shouldn’t be

there at all like barrick gold and

and macquarie group and and hyundai

engineering and

you know things that shouldn’t be there

so i i’ll caution people uh again

um in in in regards to the etfs and

the miners again if you have to spend

the time to get to know the sector to

get to know which ones

you use and which ones are not and and

look at the project

which ones you think can fly or not

and invest based on on that

okay so what about the u.s um do you

think they will protect and push

american uranium miners

they will well listen uh joe biden’s

first act as president

is to reintroduce the u.s to the

to the paris accord and uh it means that

the u.s

has to be carbon neutral by 2050.

now when you put a date uh to something

it becomes serious so if you say oh yeah

let’s

chat let’s chat sometime in the future

yeah but it doesn’t mean we’re

ever gonna chat again but if we say

let’s chat next monday at

three o’clock in the afternoon boom then

there’s a there’s a

there’s a time yeah yeah and and now

it’s serious right

yeah so the us has to first of all

save the nuclear plants they’re

scheduled to be shut down this decade

and we are having uh we are seeing this

right now in illinois

there are a couple of plants from

axalone that

might be shut down might not um i i

hope they won’t be shut down i think

they’re going to be

saved but but let’s see yeah so i think

the first step

is to save the nuclear power plants and

then

to give incentives to the miners to

produce uranium again

so obviously the most important thing is

to save the jobs and to save the

the clean energy produced by nuclear

reactors yeah okay

cool so we talked about the bulk case

which is really

actually great but let’s talk about a

potential beer case so five years from

now

uranium price is still at 30

on the spot so what went wrong can you

think of any scenario

where there is no bull market in the

coming years

yeah well i i think uh

only if there’s a nuclear accident uh

and you know did

a nuclear accident would dampen

sentiment and

it would most likely delay the recovery

in the prices we expect

now again uh nuclear accidents are not

something that happened every day

there were three in history one with

victims and and and this one was a

series of errors uh one on top of the

other

so i don’t think we’re gonna see

something like it again

um another risk uh to to consider is

china not implementing its plan to build

more nuclear reactors and but again it’s

that’s not something that worries me too

much it’s unlikely

or maybe even a great deposit being

found and developed

uh but you know how how would you

develop the deposits at the moment

who who would look at something that

would cost the 60 or

plus to produce uh just to sell it for

thirty dollars

yeah again prices have to go up to give

miners incentives to produce

uh and and and look if even if we assume

that there’s

no more uranium uh no no more nuclear

reactors

uh being built there’s still more

demands today than supply

so this imbalance has to be sorted out

and i think the

only ways is when the prices go up yeah

definitely okay that’s good so marcelo i

have to

sum it up um you actually the most

bullish uranium investor

australia has ever seen i guess so final

question

um you mentioned 70 of your net worth is

invested in uranium

so what about the other 30 percent

well uh a big chunk of it is is in

in cash uh by you know

if you if you take that amount of risk

and again i don’t think it’s a big risk

when you have

those kinds of imbalances and today is

more than 70

when i started this uh late 2018

it was 70 percent but today the fund

went up by so much that it’s uh

this tomorrow okay again

and we reinvest the the the proceeds

from uh that we get from the fund into

the fund as well so we invest alongside

our investors

okay uh and the other 30 percent i have

to put in cash just to

you know just to to to be safe and

and but but i think that listen mark

it wouldn’t make sense for me to find

such a great investment opportunity

and put three percent of my money into

that because it wouldn’t it wouldn’t

make a difference

yeah and i had three calls in my life

that made a difference in my life

uh which was um the the stock market in

brazil in the late 90s

the real estate market in brazil and

345 and uh and now

uranium and you you don’t need to have

many good calls in your life

you with a few you get there but as long

as you understand then you understand

the risks you’re comfortable with that

and you you think they are really

disproportionately

good yes you can you can bet heavily

congratulations for this investment in

uranium

so you made it actually so thank you

very much for

for the interview for getting up so

early in australia

any closing uh closing thoughts

uh listen uh well first of all it’s not

uh it’s not early at all for for me i

normally wake up at 4 4 30. that’s one

of the benefits of

living in australia and i have three

young kids as well so i’ve been

accustomed to wake up

very early for for a while now okay

but uh mark listen i i hope this

conversation has been useful to to your

listeners i’m always happy to chat and

and i i think we covered briefly the

uranium sector

and again it’s one that i think

i believe investors should look at

definitely

uh the the funny thing about uranium is

that if you do a little work

it’s worse than doing no work at all

yeah you

probably arrive at the wrong conclusions

you you either focus on it and go deeper

or you just leave it aside uh because

everything in uranium

is different from the other commodities

the buyers

contracts pricing cycle everything

i i look at uranium in the beginning of

2017

and thought it was not worth it then i

really look into it towards the end of

2017 and

most of of 2018 and i fell in love with

the sector

so yeah that that would be my advice to

people in a gay mark

thank you so much for the invitation

it’s a great pleasure to to talk to you

definitely definitely was great talking

to you marcelo it’s it’s definitely an

honor and um i learned so much and i’m

i’m i’m sure

all the listeners the audience learned a

lot and you helped to

create um financial intelligence and i

hope we do this pretty soon

again there’s so much to talk and and

time just went by like nothing

so and where can people learn more about

you are you on on twitter or

just tell us your website yeah i’m on

twitter i’m on linkedin

and if people want to to to discuss the

uranium market i’m always keen to

to discuss further it’s it’s something i

i love is a passion now and

and um you know i i went from someone

who was against nuclear energy to

someone who loves it so

if if anyone wants to discuss that i

would be more than happy to do so

yeah and we definitely put all the links

um in the show notes

and my last and definitely final

question is what is the

meaning of life for you for marcelo

lopez

well it’s it’s to be happy to to find

something you like and and go

go deep into that and have some time off

to to enjoy with the ones you love

family and friends and that’s that’s

what we

we try to do too cool listen it was

great talking to you i learned a lot and

i definitely want to do this

again and thank you very much for your

time for getting up

late not early and take care have a nice

one

bye thank you you too bye-bye

Psychologically speaking, we haven’t see Bitcoin or Ethereum return to their previous trading range (+60k for BTC and +4K USD for ETH), and it could still be several weeks until they return to those prices. Buying the dip means buying and HOLDING (hodl) the coins you bought at those lower prices, expecting the prices to rebound […]

Buy the Dip

According to Rowan Relton, commodity trading is far different from any other financial instrument.

Ultimate Commodity Trading Strategies

The Commodity Supercycle

Our partner Marc Friedrich presents a new video series “The Commodity Supercycle” on his Youtube channel.

The term supercycle means the longest period, or wave, in the growth of a financial market as described by the Elliott wave principle, originally conceived and formulated by Ralph Nelson Elliott.

Marc Friedrich believes that a new supercycle has already started and calls it “The Commodity Supercycle”.

In a series of video interviews, Marc will give deep insights to commodity trading, timing and “financial intelligence”:

As a result of the Corona crisis, central banks have pumped more money into the system than ever before. In parallel, governments have put together fiscal packages at historically unprecedented levels to buffer the recession and the effects of the crisis. All of this has caused prices for building materials, energy and raw materials to soar and for the first time in 40 years we are seeing strong inflation. Marc Friedrich believes that we are seeing a turning point and are at the beginning of a Commodity Supercycle that holds huge opportunities.

With his new series “The Commodity Supercycle” Marc Friedrich has once again gathered the brightest and most famous minds in the world of finance and commodities to recognize and seize the great opportunities now. A series, which looks for its equals in Germany, yes in Europe. Financial intelligence of the Champions League!

Marc Friedrich contact details

► Website: https://www.marc-friedrich.de

► Newsletter: https://friedrich-partner.de/newsletter

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David Hunter: Stock Markets will crash by 80 % starting in 2021

The first interview in this new video series is with David Hunter:

David Hunter has been a countercyclical macro strategist for over 40 years and has correctly predicted many developments. He correctly predicted the recovery after the Corona crash and the development of commodities. Now he warns of a historic stock market crash – already by the end of the year.

David Hunter on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

David Hunter was one of the view analysts who predicted the end of the Corona crash and recommended to buy stocks in April, 2020.

For 2021, Hunter expects a massive melt-up boom in the stock markets with the following All Time Highs:

S&P500: 4 700 to 5 000

NASDAQ: 17 000

Dow Jones Industrial: 38 000 or 39 000

Timestamps:

00:00 – 00:50 Intro

00:50 – 04:38 Where did his predictions come from?

04:38 – 07:33 How did he invest?

07:33 – 09:35 What can we expect?

09:35 – 14:39 When will the melt-up boom end?

14:39 – 19:00 How can we explain money printing?

19:00 – 26:55 Is the REPO also a trigger?

26:55 – 31:05 How will the stock market react?

31:05 – 37:32 What will happen to the dollar?

37:32 – 47:39 How can we protect ourselves?

47:39 – 50:19 What is the meaning of life & moderation

Complete video transcript (auto-generated):

wow

so welcome everyone to our new series

the

commodity super cycle and it’s a

pleasure and i’m honored and flattered

actually to

to have david hunter on the show david

how are you today

i’m good mark thanks for having me on

this pleasure the pleasure of mine

yeah and i just saw it’s the first time

you appear on a german channel so hey

it’s a historic interview i guess

it is for me that’s for sure yeah but

this time we

won’t do it in german next time perhaps

but

let’s start i’m a big follower of you on

twitter and

um you’re bullish since march 2020 so

in april 2020 and you have been the only

bull actually

um on the internet but you were spot on

actually yeah if you look back so you

were calling for

a way higher stock prices back then so

why and what did you see what nearly

nobody else saw

yeah so i i was actually going into the

into the swoon in march i was actually

looking for a melt up that

obviously the pandemic kind of

short-circuited so when we had that

35 very swift correction in the s

p um i certainly took a close look and i

said is this the beginning of

um bear market and bust that i also had

been calling for i said when the cycle

ended it would end in a global bust

yeah um and i thought gee is it

happening a little prematurely because

of the pandemic

took a look at all my work and i said no

you know sentiment’s gotten so negative

so

quickly that i don’t think this is this

is more of a fake out

you know i don’t think this is a real

the beginning of the real bear market

um and that was the start of me then

looking and saying is the melt

up still intact and it was as far as my

work said

and i felt this was actually setting up

for the melt up because

we were going to get a tremendous

response from the

um central banks around the world as

well as

fiscal response from the governments and

that’s exactly what we’ve had so

i i knew we were going to see bigger

than we had ever seen

in terms of monetary uh infusion

and that’s usually what drives markets

much higher

so it was and and i’m a contrarian so i

had the best of both worlds because i

had the

what i saw coming in terms of the

monetary and of course jay powell

confirmed that pretty quickly uh and

then sentiment was as negative as it had

been

in many years um and those two things

are

are kind of um magic for me when i see

both of those together that’s that’s you

know bullish so

so i and my my melt-up call

had been for probably 4 200.

i i kept that and said we could even

exceed that and then as we went through

the past year you know i increased it

first to 4 500

on the s p and then up to my current

level of 4 700

and i’ve been pretty uh candid about

saying i think

if anything i’m gonna be too low you

know that we could see even five

thousand

so um you know everything’s intact right

now i’m

still very bullish um i still believe

there’s a global bus coming afterwards

uh and probably probably starting before

this year is out

but okay uh but for right now

all all things look good i don’t think

you have more than a couple percent

you can always get a you know a couple

percent pull back at any time

but i don’t think there’s much more

downside than that and

you know pretty clear sailing through

the next at least next couple months on

the upside

all right awesome so um what did you buy

then back

in the last year in march or april 2020

what kind of stocks etfs or what did you

invest in

yeah as a strategist i don’t tend to

talk you know my trading or any trading

advice

um but what i will say is you know early

on i said

you know you’re going to see um the

the stocks that got us here are going to

continue to lead right into the top

and that’s still my view so i’m i’m

still a bull on

semiconductors and and the fang stocks

in terms of uh you know and technology

in general

i also along the way was

pretty bullish on industrials

commodities

um i can’t remember exactly when i

switched to

each of those things but i know last

november i

i was uh on the table in terms of saying

we’re we’re going to see a switch from

um yeah you’re going to see some of the

laggers start to really catch up

particularly energy

and financials along with some of the

industrials and that’s certainly been

been the story the last six months so

and now i think we may see some rotation

i think those groups

continue higher into the top i think

we’re going to see some rotation

um back in in terms of leadership back

into the

the stocks that got hit by uh rising

interest rates yeah you know

i’m calling for a rate rally here so i

think you’re going to see a shift back

towards the fangs um towards technology

towards the growth stocks

and i think it could surprise people how

how strong those are they’ve had a

pretty nice consolidation here for the

last four or five months

and it’s interesting because other um

hedge fund managers they see a switch

from

from value to from growth to value

like um stan brackenmiller or um

felix zuloff and so on raul powell as

well so

this is a contrarian um opinion again

you have

so this is interesting if it will play

out so so what yeah it’s interesting i

think

yeah i think that you know i find and

and not on those people specifically but

you know in general investors

tend to extrapolate from behind so they

look backwards and then say that’s

what’s going to continue forwards

yeah we we had that shift of value

obviously starting last november

um we’ve had a big move and basically

the fang stocks have gone sideways for

you know since the beginning of the year

um and so

i think you’re you’ve set up a nice

consolidation for the next leg up

okay um so and you know that’s what

that’s what fuels that leg is to shift

from those that are

now saying value to where as they see

the momentum

shift they’ll be the ones buying the

the growth stocks up yeah yeah so we are

brother and minds because i’m a

contrarian as well and i also see a

meltdown because the um central banks

print like never before they’re in a

crazy mood actually

it’s like a tesla but anyhow and so we

talked about sentiment already you

mentioned it so what do you expect for

the next

month yeah probably

um yeah as i said i’m expecting

you know the bond market to rally here

i’m i’m calling for a 1

[Music]

20 on the 10-year probably at 195

on the 30-year um

and so i think as rates start coming

down

that’s going to help sentiment you’re

going to see i think

you know and as the tape improves on the

stock market

you’re going to see sentiment move up so

really i know everybody’s talking about

how everybody

all in and bullish but what i see out

there is a lot of skepticism

people with one leg out uh one foot out

of the door

and looking to exit everybody’s looking

for that top

at the true top i don’t think you’re

going to have anybody looking for a top

they’re going to be telling you why it

can go on for years

so always the same game it’s always the

same game

yes it is that’s one thing i’ve been

doing is 48 years and every cycle looks

you know of course they aren’t all the

exactly the same but they sure look

similar on sentiment basis and so i i

think as we move through

uh the summer you’re going to see that

sentiment move up into a much more

bullish

um place yeah i remember remember

in in 1996 alan greenspan he warned

everybody

about the exploration on the stock

market that the nasdaq is in a bubble

already

but this um yeah exploration it actually

went on for three and a half more years

and

i think the the biggest leg up was in in

in late 99

early 2000s so it was the end of the

bubble and

i think the stock markets like doubled

more than doubled back then

so what is your time frame when will

this leg up this melt up this

is this this boom melter boom and end

and

what comes afterwards yeah this you know

i get picked on a lot for this because

i’m always

looking for it to happen sooner but but

the reason i’m

calling for a top this year is because

the slope has gotten so steep you know

you’re into

um you know from last from march of 2020

obviously we’ve had a

you know one double in the nasdaq you

know unprecedented moves in the markets

and so i think we are with this

you know recent consolidation in the

markets

about to enter what i would call the

last parabolic phase

and a parabolic phase um or parabolic

stage

tends to be it covers a lot of ground in

a hurry

um and so it tends to be you know

shorter in duration

so you can have for example you know i’m

calling for 17 000

000 on the nasdaq you can have from here

a 25 move in the nasdaq

and yet say well it could be over this

summer

so that sounds you know unbelievable

but that’s what the last parabolic phase

can be

and so you know 4700 to 5000

on the s p you know 17 000 on the nasdaq

38 or 39 000 on the dow you know you’re

talking about

15 to 25

moves that could happen in a matter of

you know

two or three months and so i have people

on twitter

if you follow me you see that say hey

you said you were gonna

we were gonna top out in the second

quarter you only have a few weeks you

know you’re

wrong and i go i first of all i

i didn’t say that i said it could top

out that soon that’s the earliest it

could top out

um but the market if it you know

stretches out as consolidation that just

stretches out the time

frame but i think we’re getting close

you know whether it’s july or august

or september doesn’t really matter uh

if i were betting today i’d probably say

it could be over by labor day by

u.s labor day which is early september

but

you know the the timing isn’t the

important

thing the point is we’re in the very

last um

stage of a what i call a 39 year

secular bull market so you know which

month

uh is is less important when you’re

you’re 39 years

intimate yeah so um

after this melt up you expect the

biggest bust

in the post world area why and what will

we see

sure the the simple answer we just have

so much

debt that’s been piled on to the global

financial system over

you know the last 50 years and

particularly over the last two decades

uh you’re now um in excess of 250

trillion dollars

in global debt uh and then there’s

quadrillions in notional value of

derivatives

which is another form of leverage

and and i think we’re in a situation

where

inflation’s picking up the fed’s going

to be forced

the fed and central banks around the

world but particularly the fed is going

to be forced

to tighten and i think um

if the economy’s overheating and and

inflation

you know really heating up it’s not

going to be

people hear the words you know

tightening or things like that and they

they kind of think it happens

immediately or you know the the

response happens immediately tightening

takes some time to actually

have an impact so inflation’s going to

be continuing to move up while they’re

tightening so they have to tighten some

more

you know play out over i think you know

three to six months

but um but that tightening

into a very leveraged very extended

financial system um can

can lead to a very quick unwind

and i think leverage as we learned in

business school leverage works

uh to enhance things on the way up

and really exacerbate that the pain on

the way down

so i you know i may prove to be early

again but i continue to say

we could see the bust start in the

fourth quarter

so um that doesn’t mean the whole

thing’s

encapsulated in the fourth quarter of

course but if it starts there

i think i think we’re looking at any

whenever it starts

i think we’re looking at pretty much

2022 to be a

a pretty rough year in the economy

so so i’m wondering actually and many

people as well um

how can we have a deflationary bust when

we see this

crazy spending from governments from

central banks they’re printing like

never before i mentioned it already

so i also believe we will see a

deflationary bust big one the biggest

one we’ve ever seen so

but how can we explain it to the people

to the audience

when we see that government spend so

much money like never before trillions

of dollars actually

sure um so the the fiscal on the

physical side

you know i’ll focus on on the u.s just

because they’re the element in the room

but

you know president biden is pushing

you know trillions and trillions of new

spending

we’ve already you know in the prior

administration

you know the year after the the pandemic

started

you know we were already spending

trillions and then you add on

another you know whatever it’s going to

be 5 or 10 trillion

it’s beyond belief i mean if somebody

told you this five years ago you said

you’d say that’s never going to happen

um but

the thing is most of that spending

it doesn’t get spent in the you know

three months after it’s announced

it’s something that will fuel things

going forward but it’s not

you know it rolls out over time um

depending on what it is you know some of

it is you know when you’re

when you’re cutting checks in terms of

pandemic relief

for people yes that gets spent um but

uh in terms of you know green energy

projects

or infrastructure projects you know

you’re talking

things that are going to play out over

several years and they will influence

the other side of the bus more than

they’ll influence

um you know preventing the bust

and and on the monetary side um you know

what i would say is and again this is

something that i see on twitter a lot is

people think

it’s just a simple equation of the fed

sees

um the economy getting soft and

so they just push a button and out rolls

the money

they have to consider all kinds of

things you know there’s

uh they’re going to be dealing with

inflation and

and massive debt at the same time so

and and there’s a lead and a lag to when

policy has an impact fiscal lag is

longer as i

just explained but even in monetary lag

it you know the money that rolls out

doesn’t really influence the economy for

six or eight or nine months sometimes so

um i guess the answer i would give you

is that

we’re at the end of such an extreme

cycle

that things can happen fast in both

directions so

yes you can have inflation looking like

it’s going through the ceiling

and looking like um you know the economy

is very overheated

and you know fast forward three four

five months

and say oh my god the floor is falling

out of the economy and inflation’s

heading for deflation

so um that’s not normal in normal times

things play out over years

but because of where we are in the cycle

i think

certainly the markets will respond

quickly to tightening

yeah and then that will i think trigger

financial problems across the board so

you know i’d i

guess i’d go back and say march of 2020

is a bit of a microcosm of what i think

is coming

you know we saw a 35 drop in the stock

market

in a matter of three weeks so

we’re going to be at a more extreme

place where you could see a

you know 70 or 80 percent drop in the

market in the course of a few months

so i think it’s going to be fast again

market has passed the economy

will be relatively fast i think the the

bus to be mostly contained within 2022

but it you know so that’s relatively

fast for something that would normally

play out over

years yeah but but a year is an eternity

when you’re going through something like

this so it’s not

it’s not like you know i think investors

minds think

something’s going to happen and it’s

going to happen you know

in like three weeks but the economy will

play out over several quarters

yeah so you think the trigger will be

the tapering from the fed

and what about the repo can the repo

also be a trigger

moment for the markets that the um bust

will come

yeah well repo’s part of rebuild really

part of tapering you know that’s how you

taper

or reverse repost so they’re they’re

actually pulling money out now the fed

is i don’t know exactly what central

banks around the world are doing but the

fed has

has slowed down the money growth um

you know over the course of the last

couple months there’s a lot of talk

about taper there’s a lot of talk about

and and this is what happens a lot of

times the fed behind the scenes actually

done some of that already

so the market’s held up yeah you’ve gone

you’ve gone in so sort of a sideways

direction here up and down

for you know several weeks but

really you’re you’re um you’re working

through

some sort of a taper here i would not be

surprised and again this isn’t a

forecast but just a

a possibility i would not be surprised

if

in the course of the next couple months

we get better news on inflation

yeah um and maybe some weakness in oil

um and that is the trigger for

the rally and bonds and all of a sudden

as as is

typically the case you know wall street

goes

from 100 worrying about taper and

tightening to then 100 worrying about

are we heading into deflation you know

it’s like

you know their their thought process

moves a lot quicker than the actual

events happen but

um but i i that’s what i i would not be

surprised is

that you get the you know the backing

off of that

and so then the worry about gee the

fed’s going to have to

you know tighten and that’s going to

lead to a bust you know

doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen it

just means the worry about it i think

um softens so you expect the downturn in

2022

and um 80 90 percent from the levels

then

right now or in the future yeah

basically i’m saying from from wherever

we peak

if it’s you know 47 800

on the sp if it’s 5 000 that we’re

looking at a 70

to 80 decline in the stock market peak

to trough

okay um so let’s say just for uh easy

math

say we get the 5 000 on the s p you

could get back to a thousand

um and uh yeah that’s

we have not seen that kind of a draw up

since

1929 really you know we’ve seen some

big drops i mean 2008 nine was a big

drop

um you know 1974 was a big drop

1919 yeah and 1987 was a big drop in a

short while

um and of course on the nasdaq you know

the the 2000

uh one you know rollover was big so

so it’s not unprecedented really but in

terms of it

this would be the biggest bear market in

the post-world war two era

and in our lifetime actually yes

right right yeah so what happens after

the bust

so um and how will the central banks

react actually on this

bus yeah so so they will

and that’s you know just to get back to

how can this happen while the central

banks are on

you know on guard against us but

it’s going to take time when this

thing’s unwinding fast

it’s going to take time for them to get

to a right size

policy because if things are

unwinding because of massive leverage

fast then i think we’ll have some

major major bank failures around the

world so it’ll be a whole financial

system that’s melting down

you know they’re usually they showed in

march of 2020 they can put money in

pretty quickly

but they’ve already done a lot of that

so they’re a little cautious about

doing something like that again so it’s

going to be

you know initially as explorer response

and then things start

happening fast on the downside so then

let’s say they print a trillion dollars

or

pump a trillion dollars in a hurry and

it does nothing the

swoon continues they pump a couple more

trillion this wound continues

so it’s going to take time to get to a

right-sized policy

and you know i i have argued that we

could see

the fed go from what will probably be an

eight trillion dollar balance sheet

to a 20 trillion plus you know something

between 20 and 30 trillion

to deal with the bust so you don’t get

there mentally

right now i mean you know the fed if if

you told the fed today they’d be

putting 10 trillion dollars of new money

into the system right from here

they’d say you know that we can’t do

that

but it but in the crisis that’s what

it’ll ultimately lead to

uh over the course of months probably

you know weeks and months

um so so that’s how you get the bus

but then on the other side of it that

money that’s being pumped in if it is 10

or 15 trillion

on the fence you know from the fed

and equal proportionally equal amounts

from every central bank in the world

because it’s going to be a global bust

um you know you can imagine that with a

lag and that lag is probably

you know nine months but with a lag

you start seeing the other side of that

and just like we did after march

2020 and and so again a microcosm you

look at where we’re at now we’re talking

about eight percent gdp in this country

this year

and that’s a result of what happened in

march 2020 and beyond

so you know take that and multiply it

times

you know five or ten and you can have a

similar type situation where all of a

sudden

you come out of that trough and you come

out you know in a pretty hot way

um and next thing you know you’ve got

inflation times 10. you’ve got what we

have right now

except you know it’ll take some time it

won’t happen in the first year but in

probably in the second year of the

recovery you’re going to start moving

you know up the inflation curve very

fast and by 25

26 27 i

i think you’re going to be easily in

double digits and moving towards 20

inflation rates so when you step back

and see what that is

that’s basically saying we had 40 years

of disinflation

from from 20 inflation rate in 1981

um down to zero and ultimately down to

negative inflation

in 2022 and then

within three four five years

you’ve recycled you’ve retraced that

entire

40 year move 40 um 41 42 year move

um and next next thing you know you’re

back at 20

so you’ve done what took you 40 years to

accomplish

is undone in in lesson five that’s what

i think we’re in for

yeah so as i say you know the true gloom

and doomers out there the peter ships of

the world

you know can only see this collapse

and i don’t think they realize that

beyond the collapse you will have one

last cycle

and it’ll be a pretty unbelievable cycle

in terms of

if you’re in if you’re in the industrial

and commodity sectors you will have a

ride like we’ve never had

i mean exactly that’s what i said i

wrote in my new book actually that we

will see

uh the the next decade will be the

decade of commodities of gold of silver

of everything which is limited

and what will this do to the stock

market actually will we see

new highs will the dow jones hit the

hundred thousand

yeah i’m i’m of the belief and i’m

pretty adamant about this

that the big bull market we’ve had the

secular bull market

um that started in 1982 by my

call i sometimes say you could start it

in 1974

because it was a lower low back then

but i used 1982 august of 1982 because

that was the beginning of

um this whole disinflation move um

that led to p multiples going from price

earnings multiples going from

single digits to now mid 20s

um for the market multiple that was

driven by the fact that interest

rates went from a 15 10 year down to

um you know 0.4

you know in the past year and i think

ultimately we’ll see

the 10 year down to zero in the bust

um but that multiple um gets reversed

when you go the other way

because if inflation goes to from

negative to

20 percent interest rates are going to

go from

negative back to you know the 10 year

will go back to 15

if you have rates going back in that

direction to that degree

obviously what’s going to happen to

price earnings multiples they’re going

to con

they’re going to shrink they’re going to

be compressed dramatically

so you’ll go you’ll reverse that 40-year

multiple expansion and now have multiple

contraction through the next cycle so

so then what happens is the overall

market if you’re in an s

p index fund you’re going to not be

happy because

let’s say we get 5 000 this year

the likelihood is in the next bull

market it’ll be a cyclical market by the

secular bear market

in that cyclical bull market starting

you know later in 2022

it will probably top out somewhere below

4 000

so you won’t get near 5 000. you won’t

get near the this secular peak

you’ll have a run from say a thousand on

the s p to

you know 3 000 or 4 000 so you can

triple or quadruple out of the bottom

but you’re you’re looking at the secular

top tier

the likes of which i think serves as a

high water mark

for decades to come not a decade but

decades to come

okay and and so so that means it becomes

more of an active manager’s

cycle where it matters where you put

your money

you know it always matters where you put

your money but we had the benefit in the

last 40 years

of the pe multiple win that are back so

if you were in an index fund

you know you basically did better than

most active managers who were trying to

pick stocks and didn’t

you know weren’t in that um growth area

um in the next cycle it’d be quite the

opposite

you’re gonna have a you’re gonna have a

headwind of ever higher

interest rates pushing multiples down

so then what matters is picking those

stocks

that that have are beneficiaries of

inflation and the industrial recovery

where their earnings can outstrip the

inflation and interest rates

so you know it becomes a much more

selective market

active managers will be in their heyday

and index funds will be the laggards

obviously

for a period of time they’ll be going up

but at some point you’ll be sitting

there if you

if you buy into this buy and hold mantra

and index fund mantra

at some point say in 2024

you’re gonna be sitting there going you

know my index fund is going nowhere

and i have friends who are investing in

commodities who have doubled their money

yeah you know what am i doing yeah yeah

so

in this scenario what will happen to the

u.s dollar

um i believe i’m i’m a bear right now i

believe the dollar is headed

um in the next few months through the

summer

um down to 85 on the

dollar index and perhaps down to 80.

so so it’s somewhere between 80 and 85

and i’m

i’m thinking that be the lower number um

but uh from there in the bust

um so that that happens while we’re in

the melt up

um and then in the bust

i think the dollar as it always has

i think one more time it will be seen as

the place to run for safety

keep in mind we’re looking at we’re

looking at globally

the worst economic contraction

in the post-world war ii era so in the

past 80 years

that means people are going to be

frightened that means they’re going to

say where can i go

my you know everything i look at

including

i think the euro is going to be in real

trouble they’re going to say where can i

run to

and i think they’re going to choose you

know it’s

the best shirt and the dirty laundry

basically you know

they’re going to choose the u.s dollar

not because it’s

doing you know everything’s great in the

u.s because we’re going to be struggling

big time

but they’re still going to say hey this

is still the if anybody’s going to

survive this

it’s going to be the u.s so they will

still run here one more time

um from there though and and i think you

could let’s say you get down to

80 or somewhere between 80 and 85 i

think you could run the dollar up to 120

or higher

um in that during the bus yeah

in that flight to safety trade um and

then

wherever the high water mark is whether

it’s 120 whether it’s 140

uh which is my upside of where it could

go um

from wherever that is in that next

recovery cycle

because the fed’s going to print more

money than any any central bank you know

every central bank’s going to be

printing but we’re going to be the big

big one i think we you know you

what do what is printing what is what is

montezaria ease it’s

bringing currency you know we’re going

to have such a supply of dollars out

there

and and in conjunction with everything

that the world is

trying to accomplish against the dollar

that i think the dollar tops out

wherever that run

is during the bust and i think from

there it’s all downhill for the rest of

the decade

so i would not be surprised see the

dollar sub 50.

um okay uh by the end of the decade

so what um okay this is very interesting

because um

what would this mean for the the status

of the of the of the dollar

as a world currency will china overtake

will china be the number one in the

future or which currency do you see

as number one then yeah let me put it

this way i am not

in the camp that thinks we’re we’re in

some reset this bus

is not going to lead to there’s not

going to be a reset certainly not

immediately

um i am not in the camp that thinks the

dollar loses reserve status in the next

five years

okay okay after that all bets are off

anything

anything in the latter part of the 2020s

anything is possible because we’re going

to be dealing with a worldwide crisis

the likes of which we’ve never seen you

can’t

you can’t have policy like we’ve had

um you know certainly in the last 20

years leading up to this but

what’s what’s gonna what’s happening in

the last year and what’s going to come

in the next couple years is beyond

anything

that any system can withstand

think about it you know i can throw

around numbers on inflation

um and on markets and on you know gdp

how how i can’t i can’t tell you

how um a budget gets financed

that is you know has

um um

debt to the levels i’m talking

you know everybody’s talking about a

debt peak here

you know that this is the super cycle

peak in debt

i go no because of the bust you have one

more leg up

so 250 trillion or slightly above that

now

is probably going to go to something

like 350 or 400 trillion

by the end of the decade and most of

that in the next few years

how do we finance that not just the us

but around the world

with inflation rates and interest rates

in not only double digits but ultimately

high double digits

it can’t happen there’s no equation that

i can come up with

that leads to a much bigger collapse i

mean so

you know i i pretty much say that beyond

and i don’t have any precise timing but

i’m using

i’m saying this you know the the next

cycle’s gonna be a short one

maybe it lasts a decade you know the

rest of this decade maybe it

cut short of that but i believe the

2030s

is going to be a depression many many

times what this world saw

in the 1930s i mean it’s a collapse of

the entire

financial system as far as i can see

because i don’t see any equation that

can solve it

exactly exactly i don’t i don’t really

worry about

gee is china’s you know is that going to

take

the place of the dollar or are we going

to see

a a basket currency hey none of that

matters

exactly we’re talking about something

that is a worldwide collapse

yeah unfortunately i agree my last

best-selling book was called the biggest

crash of all times and that’s what i

actually predicted as well

and i’m really afraid that it will

happen there is no solution within the

system we see

the central banks the politicians have

only one

answer to all these problems it’s

printing money and making more debts but

it never worked it didn’t work in

zimbabwe it didn’t work in argentina or

in the weimar republic so it’s it’s all

the same game again but

we forgot because it’s a next generation

problem so anyhow

how can we prepare for this scenario

for inflation for deflation for this

depression so how to invest how to

protect your wealth and your

your money actually yeah as a strategist

i

i pretty much can only forecast i have

to

shy away from any kind of advice yeah

but what i will say is basically

um you know the the road map i laid out

tells you pretty much if you think about

it

you know the next you know you’ve got a

you’ve got a short window here

um into a top uh

you know the next few months and and

then you’ve got

you know the biggest market decline in

over 80 years coming if i’m right

and then you’ve got a fairly short cycle

driven by industrial and commodity

stocks

and basically you want to end the decade

debt-free financially

sound and and with

as much liquidity as you can have

beyond that you know i i do believe

gold’s going to

10 000 plus and i don’t know what that

plus is is it

is it 12 000 is it 15 pound i don’t know

but by the end of the decade i think

we’ll see gold there we’ll see silver

300 plus and again i don’t know if it’s

400 or 500 whatever that plus

is but um you know they will be

great through this decade um the

question

is what what do you do

in in uh you know

there’s no precedent for what’s coming

in the 2030s in my opinion

and it’s and it’s obviously it’s

financial it’s economic

but it’s also geopolitical and

who knows what comes out of that vacuum

my fear is it’s totalitarian my fear is

that

all the events leading you know that

have been going on for the last 50 years

are leading towards you know this new

world order is all leading towards

communism etc and totalitarianism

so my fear is that’s what fills that

vacuum

wrongly but um who knows i mean i am not

in the camp

there are a lot of people out there that

are wishing for the reset

saying oh yeah let’s have the collapse

now so we can just start over

that’s not how it’s likely to work you

know

uh nobody should be wishing for what’s

coming because i i think it’s

really dire yeah um and i don’t like

saying that because i

you know i tell people focus on the here

and now

um you know take care of your your

details now

um don’t you know compartmentalize don’t

don’t spend your time worrying about

what’s going to come in the 2030s

because it’ll paralyze you

you know you need to do this you know

the things that you can do now

um and focus on the now um

that’s the only way i can forecast if i

if i

you know thought about what i think is

coming if i spent my time thinking about

that

you know i wouldn’t sleep at night so i

think

you really do have to focus on um

you know first the melt up coming and

then the you know the bus that’s coming

and then

know that there is a recovery after that

bus don’t get caught in the

what i call the gloom and doomers that

are telling you we’re down for the count

in the next year you know there is there

is a recovery cycle and the reason there

is a recovery cycle

is simply because in deflation

the fed and the central banks have

virtually

infinite ability to print money yeah and

ultimately if you print enough money you

will get a recovery so

um the problem after the recovery

is that we’re going to have you know

we’re we’re going to be between a rock

and a hard place you’re going to have

hyperinflation and fragility both

and when the fed and so the central

banks will be out of the game

you know they can’t pour more fuel on an

already roaring fire

that’s what happened in the early 80s

you know you

you know if you have hyperinflation the

central banks are out of the game

yeah the reason we can have a recovery

cycle is because the central banks are

going to have infinite ability to

respond to it

because the inflation is lagged you know

that if it

if the money led to inflation in three

months

they couldn’t do it but you print money

today it doesn’t cause inflation for a

couple years or not

certainly not high inflation so so you

have that

freedom to say i’m dealing with what i

see right in front of me

which will be a bust i’m not dealing

with the consequences of that money that

i’m printing

that is going to lead to inflation you

know in the mid 20s

i got to deal with what’s right in front

of me so that’s why you can have a

recovery because they’ll have

you know unfettered ability to print

money

yeah so you mentioned gold and silver as

a safe haven

for the next couple of years till the

end of the decade what about the digital

gold bitcoin

yeah i did not follow bitcoin um i don’t

you know the cryptos to me have not been

tested you’ve got to get through the

to see whether they’re you know what

what

they’re going to be in that obviously

you’ve got risk of government

intervention

all of those things so right now i mean

it and not immediately right now because

it’s selling off but

in in the last many months it’s been a

you know

something that’s moving up so you got a

lot of people jumping on the bandwagon

why are they jumping on it because they

understand it

no they’re jumping on it because it’s

making money

you know it’s no different than a you

know a hot stock

um that is going straight up and we know

what happens when things go parabolic

and then

you know they correct so i’m not i’m i

don’t follow bitcoin so i’m not

making a recommendation one way or the

other

yeah i can’t anyway as a strategist but

but um

i would say just that it’s an untested

thing i think

and and there’s a lot of people out

there claiming

they understand it and etc um

i think those voices will be a lot less

if it continues to sell off because it’s

you know a lot of it’s being

generated by the you know the momentum

um so yeah i i

think yeah what about um commodities

mining stocks stocks in general

um oil will this be a safe

the thing i would say i i do think oil

in the next cycle is going to go to 300

plus which which time frame

um that will be after the bus to be

between

between the end of the bust and the end

of the decade

um and i think you could see it ramp up

pretty quickly so that by

2027 you might be there you might be at

300 that quickly

um you know you’re you’re gonna you’re

gonna hear

peak uh peak oil again as a

as a mantra out there yeah in not too

many years

because it’s even worse than ever

because obviously

with um the policies coming out of the

biden administration

um they’re limiting supply um

and you know we’re we’re gonna we’re

gonna see an

oil what we’ve seen in lumber what we’ve

seen

in um you know the metal steel and

copper and all of those where all of a

sudden

you go from just in time inventory and

demand roaring away

and what we’ve seen in semiconductor

chips you know all of a sudden there’s a

shortage

because we we plan for a much less of a

demand

picture than we’re getting i think

that’s what you’ll see in the next cycle

because think if if the world is going

to be as i’ve said

the next cycle is going to be an

industrial driven

cycle we haven’t had an industrially

driven

cycle um x china since

um since the uh 1970s

so you know the last 40 years has been

consumer driven

if we go to a industrially driven cycle

that demands a lot more energy and

particularly a lot more fossil fuels so

you can see oil i think demand go

through the roof

and supply is just not going to be there

so price give you know price goes

straight up

um the the thing that i do want to

question people is

just remember i i use the analogy which

you know in this country anyway of

standing on

the um south peak

of the grand canyon and looking across

to the north peak

and thinking it’s a straight line across

um

and not realizing there’s this big

canyon in between

well that’s like buying you know

the um commodities

this year and i’m not saying right now

is the top because they can go higher

with into the top but but you know

buying the commodities here in the next

few months thinking it’s a straight line

to the commodity cycle

in you know 2023 and beyond

that bust in between there’s a big

canyon i think you’re going to see

commodities get hit very hard during the

bus because demand is going to fall

through the floor

so it’s just you know they’re not a safe

haven in the bus

long term they are definitely have a lot

more room

upside um to go but just know it’s not a

straight line

um that that’d be my only message there

perfect

david it was incredible interview i

thank you very much already i’ve got

one last question and this is something

totally different than financial advice

or um

macroeconomics and we had now our dark

outlook for the future so but what is

for you for david hunter what is the

meaning of life

huh wow um gotcha

i i will say this and the you know the

older you got

the more you wish you realized this more

when you were younger

but um you know it’s it’s

something that people say when you leave

this earth you know it’s not going to be

you know those stock picks i made or the

forecasts i made that matter

what matters your your real legacy is

what you leave behind in terms of

what you teach children um you know

what you teach your grandchildren or the

times you spent with your grandchildren

the memories they have of you

uh hopefully good ones um and

to me i think if people could learn this

lesson earlier it’s always

good i mean i did know it all the way up

to some degree but i will say it’s you

know

being 69 years old now i really

pray you know i enjoy and treasure those

moments with

my grandkids and seeing the innocence in

their eyes you know and things like that

so

that’s to me that’s the meaning of life

not this stuff this stuff

kind of keeps us going it’s it’s our

hobbies or our livelihoods but

it’s it’s really your families that

matter yeah

true so hey i won’t stop you go and play

with your grandkids so where can people

find more about you

i’m sure the best way to um find

my work is on twitter i’m on there if

not every day

several times a week um you know

tweeting uh my views so

uh if you go to at dave h contrarian

uh you’ll find me there right

i will put a link in the in the show

notes of course and i recommend

everybody who’s watching this to follow

david it’s definitely worth it

yeah thank you and i i do write a um

quarterly investment

letter and i it’s it’s you know by

subscription so there is a cost to it

if people have an interest they can

direct message me on twitter and i’ll

give you details

um but um yeah i um

those are kind of my two outlets cool

cool yeah we will have you back

definitely

hopefully soon and have fun playing with

your kids and i enjoyed it a lot it was

an honor to have you on my show and yeah

take care stay healthy and

yeah the best to you yeah same to you

Marc and thanks for having me on

What’s the best way to trade crypto? Should you HODL? Should you buy and sell after a few hours? Should you swing trade?

Cryptocurrency is one of the best assets for momentum traders. It is liquid, it has range, and provides clean trends consistently.

The truth is there is no one-size-fits-all strategy for crypto investing.

Here’s what you need to consider about these two styles of investing:

Momentum Trading vs Investing

There are many ways to skin a cat. It al depends on the trader. Momentum trading is our preferred style of trading Bulls on Wall Street. Momentum trading simply refers to day trading and swing trading.

Day trading is buying an asset and selling it within the same trading day. A swing trading is buying and selling a few days or weeks later. The fundamental differences between these two styles:

Momentum Trading

• Holding period from seconds to a few weeks
• Higher risk, higher reward
• Focused on Technical Analysis
• Focused on Capital Growth
• Capitalize in Both Market Directions

Long-Term Investing

• Holding Period From Years to Decades
• Lower Risk, Lower Reward
• Focused on Fundamental Analysis
• Focused on Capital Preservation
• Long side Biased

Let’s get into the pros and cons of using each style of investing on it:

Momentum Trading Pros

Momentum trading, if done correctly can make you huge percentage returns in a matter of minutes or hours. Crypto has had such a large range lately that it is possible to make 5-10% returns in a day with the right entries and exits.

You are constantly taking profits, unlike with long-term investing, you are creating cash flow on a weekly basis. As momentum traders, we look for the coins with the most range, liquidity, and in the best position to make explosive moves.

Momentum Trading Cons

Crypto has the potential to do some serious damage to your trading account if you don’t have proper risk management. When you’re trading volatile asset classes like cryptocurrencies, you have to have a trading plan. Always use a hard stop loss.

You also have to take the time to develop a successful trading system for cryptocurrencies. You need to have an edge, otherwise, you’re just gambling (you can learn some strategies in Bulls on Wallstreet free E Book here).

It also requires active management of your positions. Some people don’t want to be monitoring positions consistently. Buy and forget.

Buy and Hold Pros

It is the most passive form of investing. You don’t need to be checking quotes every day, and for this reason, it is the most popular. Bitcoin and the general market has been in a non-stop uptrend for the past year, and all the fundamentals are there for continued growth in upcoming years. It is the most hands-off style of investing.

Buy and Hold Cons

Most “Buy and Hold” investments people usually make 2-6% returns annually, which is considered very good. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most other cryptos obviously have achieved much better returns for investors in the past few years.

Volatility is not something most “buy and hold” investors want and might cause them a lot of stress. Bitcoin can make 10% moves in a day, it can also drop 10% or more in the same time period. It might cause people who aren’t experienced investors to do something rash and panic sell.

Know What Type of Trader You Are

Everyone has different amounts of capital at their disposal, different risk tolerances, and different personalities. This means pretty much everyone will have their own unique style of trading. If you’re the type of person who feels the need to check their phone every 5 minutes to see how their Bitcoin investment is doing, you might consider day trading instead of buy and hold.

If you’re a person who is not quick thinking and gets stressed out by watching every tick, buy and hold might be better than day trading for you. It is important to understand yourself, and what in trading causes you the most pain. Regardless of your style of investing, you need to take the time to develop a trading system that causes you the least amount of stress.

The bottom line, if you can stomach risk and execute a strategy profitably, momentum trading is clearly the superior option. Long-term investing = Lower risk, lower reward. Momentum trading is a higher reward, and not necessarily high risk if you know what you’re doing.

Source: https://kiwicrypto.org/2021/03/06/should-you-hodl-or-should-you-trade loaded 12.07.2021

Potential air source heat pump running cost issue

written by Mars 8 February 2021

7

When we installed our air source heat pump two years ago, all our running costs and calculations were based on electricity being sold at around 15p/kWh. We’ve changed electricity providers a few times to ensure that we stay under that financial mark, but that’s proving to be more and more difficult and I think that air source heat pumps are going to be put under pressure from a running cost perspective in the years ahead.

So let’s put things in context. Before our air source heat pump went in, we were paying £250 a month in oil (at 50p per litre) to heat the house, which as we’ve mentioned many times, wasn’t economically viable. When the air source heat pump went in, we were paying 14p/kWh of electricity, which made it cheaper to run than oil.

But let’s take a look at the January numbers for our heat pump. January had a lot of really icy days and it’s been the longest sustained bout of cold weather we’ve experienced since moving in. Last month, we consumed 2,231 kWh of electricity, just for the air source heat pump, which is a crazy amount at around 72kWh per day.

Over January, we were lucky in that our Symbio rate was still 11p/kWh. That expires at the end of February, and we can’t find a provider for anything less than 16p/kWh. We don’t have a smart metre, so we are reliant on competitive set tariffs. Having said that, most people on smart metres with agile tariffs are averaging around the 15p/kWh mark in January.

So what does this mean? To answer that, let’s put our January consumption into the table below and see what it costs to heat our house based on these various rates during a cold month.

Tariff	Cost on 2,231 kWh consumption
11p/kWh	£245
14p/kWh	£312
15p/kWh	£334
16p/kWh	£357
17p/kWh	£380

I find the numbers above a tad scary. Yes, we’ve had a cold January, and February so far is equally icy with beast from the east blizzards, and as climate change continues to throw up colder winters, I’m not sure how economically viable it’s going to be to heat this house if electricity rates don’t drop.

As mentioned, we’re super lucky that we have a low tariff for January and February, but that’s not going to last, and at that rate we were able to heat this house at £245, £5 less than what we were paying for oil.

It looks like the best tariff we’ll be able to get for 2021 is 15p/kWh and that shoots our heating bill up to £334 on January’s consumption, which is mad, and it isn’t financially viable in the long-term. I suppose we’re getting some assistance from our solar PV, and in January we generated a modest 161kWh of power. Since we’re on a tariff of 11p/kWh, we’ll apply the same value, which means we can shave off £18 off our January heating bill.

So it’s an issue for us going forward, and the issue will apply to all people with an air source heat pump, irrespective of their home size and what they’re paying for heating because it’s all relative. Everyone’s bills will get higher with more consumption and higher rates.

So I think the UK government has a problem on its hands. They are driving the market for more and more people to switch to ASHPs, but they will become unaffordable to run. Unlike gas or oil, you can’t just switch the pump off to save on heating and then turn back in when you get too cold, because theses pumps can take days to reheat cold rooms and that reheating process is incredibly inefficient.

I can’t see a feasible, sustainable, financially viable way of running an air source heat pump at tariffs over 15p/kWh and that, for the first time, has me worried. I spent the weekend on comparison websites and visiting providers directly. Most tariffs are at 16-18p/kWh and that’s going to be extremely expensive if we start to have regularly cold winters.

Source: https://myhomefarm.co.uk/potential-air-source-heat-pump-running-cost-issue loaded 29.06.2021

Comparison to Germany:

In Germany, the energy price has risen up to 32 Ct/kWh for the standard tariff (world champion).
We paid 2000 € with 7568 kWh for heating with our heat pump in 2020. This equals a “special heat pump tariff” of 26.38 Ct/kWh.
Back in 2002, we started with a medium tariff of 11.8 Ct/kWh.
We must consider how to go on as soon as the heat pump breaks down…

Another commenter wrote:
28 June 2021 – 16:38

hi there – my air source is costing me around 6k a year to run – yes you read that right – and I have solar PV and a well insulated home. I am going to pull out soon and go back to LPG