Qi wireless charging everywhere? It’s coming.

Image courtesy of Aircharge

Now that new iPhone models that feature Qi wireless charging are in the hands of consumers, it seems wireless charging will become even more pervasive in public locations than it is today. Soon, everywhere people go, they won’t have to struggle with having to carry wired chargers and hunting for power outlets as they worry about running out of battery power.  This promise just got closer to reality with Apple’s commitment to Qi wireless charging.

Today, there are already thousands of Qi wireless charging spots in public spaces such as hotels, restaurants, coffee shops, bars, retail stores, airports, on buses, on trains, train and bus stations, offices, health clubs, and events and exhibitions. Wireless Power Consortium (WPC) members such as Aircharge, Chargifi, Kube Systems, Wyless and Zens have been busy installing wireless charging points every day in more than 25 countries.

Image courtesy of Aircharge

The pace of these deployments will grow quickly now that even more smartphone manufacturers have all united behind Qi wireless charging. Today, there are already over 90 Qi certified smartphones, including the newly announced iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus and iPhone X, and the Samsung Galaxy range. These smartphones can be charged wirelessly by simply placing them on a surface charger, while phones that don’t have built-in wireless charging capabilities can still benefit from wireless charging thanks to the use of wireless charging accessories that can be added to a device.

The value of Qi wireless charging is that consumers are able to power their mobile devices wirelessly throughout the course of the day without the need for carrying chargers, cables or battery packs. As we have all become increasingly dependent on mobile devices, we’ve all also been affected by their limited battery life.  For most of us, that means we now likely require to charge our battery more than once per day, with the challenge of finding accessible power sources when on the go.

Today, there are thousands of Qi wireless charging locations where consumers can access instant, free power. Of the locations available, McDonald’s with partner Aircharge has deployed the largest number of charging spots to date with Qi wireless charging at more than 400 UK restaurants and deployments beginning in 14 other countries. While most Qi wireless locations exist in Europe, we now are seeing the Qi wireless charging ecosystem expanding in installations in Asia and in the US, and this will only progress faster on the heels of the iPhone integration.

Now, with the clear commitment by smartphone manufacturers to the Qi standard and the fact that WPC member companies have already succeeded in bringing wireless charging into 80 car models, countless public locations, offices and homes, soon consumers will see Qi wireless charging spots implemented in even more retail, restaurants, bars, coffee shops and transportation depots.  With Qi wireless charging everywhere consumers go, the fear of running out of battery power for your phone may become a thing of the past.
Source: https://www.wirelesspowerconsortium.com/blog/280/qi-wireless-charging-everywhere-its-coming loaded 13.1.2018

Long Trade in the Dow Jones Industrial cash index

As explained in my previous post, I only trade the Dow Jones Industrial index. As a CFD trader, I can trade the Dow Jones future or the Dow Jones cash index.

The abbrevation for the Dow Jones cash index is UsaInd with my broker:

Time Symbol Type Direction Volume Price Swap Profit Comment
2017.12.07 15:12:27 UsaInd buy in 0.50 24106.01 0.00 0.00
2017.12.07 15:23:52 UsaInd buy in 0.50 24093.98 0.00 0.00
2017.12.07 15:30:03 UsaInd buy in 0.50 24105.08 0.00 0.00
2017.12.07 15:31:37 UsaInd sell out 0.50 24110.77 0.00 19.25
2017.12.07 15:31:38 UsaInd sell out 0.50 24109.77 0.00 17.13
2017.12.07 15:31:50 UsaInd buy in 0.50 24106.93 0.00 0.00
2017.12.07 15:32:11 UsaInd buy in 0.50 24118.15 0.00 0.00
2017.12.07 16:20:42 UsaInd sell out 1.49 24195.88 0.00 549.40
2017.12.07 23:01:13 balance 0.00 0.46 1858413 DIVIDEND 70352063_33
2017.12.08 20:46:46 UsaInd sell out 0.01 24294.68 -0.09 7.90

 

The difference between the future and the cash index is that it may be more convenient to choose the cash index for long-term investments.

When I hold a long position (buy the market) overnight, the broker pays a dividend (see 23:01:13 dividend 0.46).

Furthermore, the future is only active for 3 months. If I want to hold a position long-term, I would have to close the position and re-open it in the next 3-month future.

So buying the cash index may be an option for investors or long-term traders.

But beware, the broker also asks for a fee when holding a short position (sell the market) overnight.

The cash index also causes some costs when held overnight, here you can see 0.09 swap for overnight investment.

This topic is to be continued in my next post.

Here are some charts and comments on this trade:

Stop below daily low

I bought a little bit too early:

Buy again

Reduce the risk

Buy again

This looks so good

Red line is broken

Sell and buy again in order to compensate the losses I made before

That looks good

Sell 1.49 CFDs in order to make the profit

I ended the trade market with almost 200 points of profit:

WH-10B Universal Holder for smartphones with Qi wireless charger

The SCHMITT WH-10B Universal Holder uses the latest technology called inductive loading.

The Qi holder comes with a magnetic plate which can be attached to your smartphone via removable 3M strip.

In this way, you can clip your smartphones fast and easy to the smartphone holder.

The holder itself is permanently connected with the 12 V outlet so that you do not have to plug the cable in and out at the smartphone.

When attached to the magnetic holder, the smartphone will be loaded via inductive loading.

For more information about the Qi standard, read here…

Qi standard

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Qi
The Qi logo, which consists of a round-esque, lowercase "q" with a semicircle at the right parallel to its stem and a circle on top.

The Qi logo, consisting of a lowercase “q” with a semicircle-esque “i” with a circle on top
Status Active
Year started 2008; 10 years ago
First published 2008; 10 years ago
Latest version 1.2.2
Organization Wireless Power Consortium
Committee Wireless Power Consortium
Domain Inductive charging
License Open standard
Copyright Logo and trademark

Qi (pronounced /tʃiː/ CHEE;[1] from the Chinese word qi, “energy flow”) is an open interface standard that defines wireless power transfer using inductive charging over distances of up to 4 cm (1.6 inches), and is developed by the Wireless Power Consortium.[2] The system uses a charging pad and a compatible device, which is placed on top of the pad, charging via resonant inductive coupling.[3]

Mobile device manufacturers that are working with the standard include Apple, Asus, HTC, Huawei, LG Electronics, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, Samsung, BlackBerry, and Sony.[4]

First released in 2008, the Qi standard had by 2016 been incorporated into more than 140 smartphones, tablets and other devices.[5]

Features and specifications

Under the Qi specification, “low power” inductive transfers deliver power below 5 W using inductive coupling between two planar coils. These coils are typically 5 mm apart but can be up to 40 mm and possibly farther apart.[2]

Regulation of the output voltage is provided by a digital control loop where the power receiver communicates with the power transmitter and requests more or less power. Communication is unidirectional from the power receiver to the power transmitter via backscatter modulation. In backscatter modulation, the power-receiver coil is loaded, changing the current draw at the power transmitter. These current changes are monitored and demodulated into the information required for the two devices to work together.[3]

The bottom side of an LG WCP-300 Qi charging pad

Opened Nokia DT-900 Qi charger

The WPC published the Qi low-power specification in August 2009.[6] The Qi specification can be downloaded freely after registration.[7] In 2011, the Wireless Power Consortium began to extend the Qi specification to medium power.[8] The low-power specification delivers up to 5 W (typically used to charge mobile devices), and the medium-power specification will deliver up to 120 W (typically used to power displays and laptops). In 2015, WPC demonstrated a high-power specification that will deliver up to 1 kW, allowing the powering of kitchen utensils among other high-power utilities.[7][dead link]

Adoption

Nokia first adopted Qi in its Lumia 920 phone in 2012,[9] and the Google/LG Nexus 4 followed later that year. Toyota began offering a Qi charging cradle as a factory option on its 2013 Avalon Limited,[10] with Ssangyong the second car manufacturer to offer a Qi option, also in 2013.[11]

In 2015, a survey found that 76% of people surveyed in the United States, United Kingdom, and China were aware of wireless charging (an increase from 36% the previous year), and 20% were using it — however only 16% of those using it were using it daily.[12] Furniture retailer IKEA introduced lamps and tables with integrated wireless chargers for sale in 2015,[13] and the Lexus NX gained an optional Qi charging pad in the center console.[14] An estimated 120 million wirelessly charging phones were sold that year,[12] notably the Samsung Galaxy S6, which supported both Qi and the competing Power Matters Alliance standards.[15] However, the existence of several competing wireless charging standards was still seen as a barrier to adoption.[15]

By early 2017, Qi had displaced the competing standards, with no new products featuring Rezence.[16] On September 12, 2017, Apple Inc. announced that their new smartphones, the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and the iPhone X, will support the Qi standard. Apple also announced plans to expand the standard with a new protocol called AirPower.

As the Qi standard gains popularity, it is expected that Qi Hotspots will begin to arise in places such as coffee shops, airports, sports arenas, etc.[17] The Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, a major US coffee chain, will install inductive charging stations at selected major metropolitan cities,[18] as well as Virgin Atlantic Airways, for United Kingdom’s London Heathrow Airport[19] and New York City’s John F. Kennedy International Airport.[20]

System overview

Devices that operate with the Qi standard rely on electromagnetic induction between planar coils. A Qi system consists of two types of devices – the Base Station, which is connected to a power source and provides inductive power, and Mobile Devices, which consume inductive power. The Base Station contains a power transmitter that comprises a transmitting coil that generates an oscillating magnetic field; the Mobile Device contains a power receiver holding a receiving coil. The magnetic field induces an alternating current in the receiving coil by Faraday’s law of induction. Close spacing of the two coils, as well as shielding on their surfaces, ensure the inductive power transfer is efficient.

Base Stations typically have a flat surface—referred to as the Interface Surface—on top of which a user can place one or more Mobile Devices. There are two methods for aligning the transmitting coil (part of the Base Station) and receiving coil (part of the Mobile Device) in order for a power transfer to happen. In the first concept—called guided positioning—a user must place the Mobile Device on a certain location of the Base Station’s surface. For this purpose, the Mobile Device provides an alignment aid that is appropriate to its size, shape and function. The second concept—referred to as free positioning—does not require the user to place the Mobile Device in direct alignment with the transmitting coil. There are several ways to achieve free positioning. In one example a bundle of transmitting coils is used to generate a magnetic field at the location of the receiving coil only. Another example uses mechanical means to move a single transmitting coil underneath the receiving coil. A third option is to use a technique called “Multiple Cooperative Flux Generators.”[21]

Fig. 1-1

Figure 1-1 illustrates the basic system configuration. As shown, a power transmitter includes two main functional units—a power conversion unit and a communications and control unit. The diagram shows the transmitting coil (array) generating the magnetic field as part of the power conversion unit. The control and communications unit regulates the transferred power to the level that the power receiver requests. The diagram also demonstrates that a Base Station may contain numerous transmitters, allowing for multiple Mobile Devices to be placed on the same Base Station and inductively charge until each of its batteries are fully charged. Finally, the system unit in the diagram comprises all other functionality of the Base Station, such as input power provisioning, control of multiple power transmitters, and user interfacing.

A power receiver comprises a power pick-up unit, as well as a communications and control unit. Similar to the power conversion unit of the transmitter, Figure 1-1 illustrates the receiving coil as capturing the magnetic field of the power pick-up unit. A power pick-up unit typically contains a single receiving coil only. Moreover, a Mobile Device typically contains a single power receiver. The communications and control unit regulates the transferred power to the level that is appropriate for the subsystems (e.g., battery) connected to the output of the power receiver. These subsystems represent the main functionality of the Mobile Device.

Example Power Transmitter Hardware

As an example from the 2017 version 1.2.2 of the Qi specification (referenced above), the A2 reference Qi low-power transmitter has a coil of 20 turns (in two layers) in a flat coil, wound on a form with a 19mm inner diameter and a 40mm outer diameter, with a below-coil shield of soft iron at least 4mm larger in diameter which gives an inductance of 24 +-1 microhenries. This coil is placed in a series resonant circuit with a 200 nF capacitor to yield a resonant circuit with a natural resonance at ~140 KHz when coupled to the receiver coil.

This series resonant circuit is then driven by an H-bridge switching arrangement from the DC source; at full power, the voltage in the capacitor can reach 50 volts. Power control is automatic; the Qi specification requires that the actual voltage applied be controllable in steps at least as small as 50 millivolts.

Rather than down-regulate the charging voltage in the device, Qi chargers meeting the A2 reference use a PID (proportional-integral-derivative) controller to modulate the delivered power according to the primary cell voltage.

Other Qi charge transmitters start their connections at 140 KHz, but can change frequencies to find a frequency with a better match, as the mutual inductance between transmitter and receiver coils will vary according to the standoff distance between transmitter and receiver coils, and thus the natural resonance frequency will vary. Different Qi reference designs have different coil arrangements, including oval coil and multi-coil systems as well as more complex resonance networks with multiple inductors and capacitors. These designs allow frequency-agile operation at frequencies from 105 to 205 KHz and with maximum resonant circuit voltages as high as 200 volts.

Example Power Receiver Hardware

The Qi power receiver hardware reference design 1, also from version 1.2.2 of the Qi specification, starts with a rectangular coil of wire 44mm x 30mm outside size, with 14 turns of wire, and with an above-coil magnetic shield. This coil is wired into a parallel resonant circuit with a pair of capacitors (of 127 nanofarads and 1.6 nanofarads in series). The power output is taken across the 1.6 nanofarad capacitor.

In order to provide a digital communications channel back to the power transmitter, a resonance modulator consisting of a pair of 22 nanofarad capacitors and a 10Kohm resistor in a T configuration can be switched across the 1.6 nanofarad capacitor. Switching the T network across the 1.6 nanofarad capacitor causes a significant change in the resonant frequency of the coupled system that is detected by the power transmitter as a change in the delivered power.

Power output to the portable device is via a full-wave bridge wired across the 1.6 nanofarad capacitor; the power is typically filtered with a 20 microfarad capacitor before delivery to the charge controller.

Other Qi power receivers use alternate resonance modulators, including switching a resistor or pair of resistors across the receiver resonator capacitor, both before and after the bridge rectifier.

See also

References

External links

Source: Qi (standard), https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Qi_(standard)&oldid=819537502 (last visited Jan. 13, 2018).

 

Trading the Dow Jones Industrial Index

As I already explained in my last post, I trade a mixture of different trading styles.

I look at the chart and mark the Alltime High, Daily High, Daily Low, Open Level and US Open Level.

I mostly have an opinion of what I think the market will do.

Mostly, I was wrong so I try to become as flexible as possible.

I watch out for resistance or support levels and make up my trading setup.

This means I will go long (buy the market) or I will go short (sell the market).

Sometimes, it may also be as logical to go short instead of going long or vice versa.

Anyway, I decide to buy or to sell.

When the market moves in my direction, I am glad and try to set the stop as fast as possible to entry level.

When the market moves in the opposite direction, I wait until the trade is ended with reaching my stop level or I even end the trade manually (market).

Sometimes, I turn around and buy or sell in the direction of the market.

Sometimes, I do the same trade in the same direction again.

I want to point out that I am not right very often. It is more a trial and error thing, trying to find the direction the market wants to take.

I always have a stop level with every trade.

I am very often stopped out.

The idea is to make more money with the successful trades than loosing with the ended trades. This is why money management is so important.

I have a defined starting risk of 50 Euros per trade.

The leverage of the trade depends on how far the stop is set from entry level.

When I set a 50-point-stop, I can only buy or sell one lot (i.e. 1 point movement equals 1 Euro profit or loss).

When I can do with a 10-point-stop, I can buy or sell 5 lots (i.e. 1 point movement equals 5 Euros profit or loss).

My maximum trading size in this trade was 4 CFDs  which equals around 16 lots (i.e. 1 point movement equals 16 Euros profit or loss).

This topic is continued here: Long Trade in the Dow Jones Industrial cash index

Here is a long trade in the Dow Jones Industrial future:

Time Symbol Type Direction Volume Price Profit
2017.11.27 14:05:12 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.10 23508 0.00
2017.11.27 15:07:50 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.10 23522 0.00
2017.11.27 15:30:08 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23537 0.00
2017.11.27 15:30:27 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23533 0.00
2017.11.27 15:31:03 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23531 0.00
2017.11.27 15:31:12 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23525 0.00
2017.11.27 15:31:30 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.30 23526 0.00
2017.11.27 15:33:43 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23525 0.00
2017.11.27 15:34:10 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23520 0.00
2017.11.27 15:35:35 UsaIndDec17 buy in 0.50 23525 0.00
2017.11.27 15:42:16 UsaIndDec17 sell out 3.50 23547 290.13
2017.11.27 15:46:02 UsaIndDec17 sell out 0.40 23559 53.29
2017.11.27 15:52:24 UsaIndDec17 sell out 0.09 23580 19.90
2017.11.28 15:27:16 UsaIndDec17 sell in/out 0.50 23621 3.95

 

Here you can see the chart:

After the trade is over, everything looks clear and easy.

The difficult thing is to increase the leverage in the right moment and to stay relaxed even when the market turns against you:

At the end, I sold 3.5 CFDs at the red line:

I kept 0.5 CFDs and sold 0.4 CFDs at 23559, 10 points below the ATH 23569:

I sold the next 0.09 CFDs 30 points above the ATH:

I kept the 0.01 CFD as a balance to the 0.01 CFD of the cash index, and sold it at 23621:

Trading terminology: Lots

Lot

What it is:

A lot is a securities trade for a “standard” number of trading units. In stock trading, a lot is 100 shares (also called a “round lot”). However, inactive stocks generally trade in 10-share lots.

How it works (Example):

Lots are the standard trading amount, and thus they usually incur the most favorable commission costs. For example, if you wanted to buy six lots of Company XYZ stock, you would be buying 600 shares.

Investors, especially individuals, frequently cannot or do not want to bear the expense of trading shares in round lots, however, which is why most brokers also accept “odd-lot” trades (though they may charge a higher commission for doing so). However, the advent of electronic and online trading platforms has reduced, and in some cases eliminated, these odd-lot premiums.

Why it Matters:

Lot  investors tend to be larger investors. The ratio of odd-lot buying to odd-lot selling, on the other hand, is often used to evaluate small-investor sentiment.

Source: http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-market/lot-5075

What is a ‘Standard Lot’

A standard lot is the equivalent to 100,000 units of the base currency in a forex trade. A standard lot is similar to trade size. It is one of the three commonly known lot sizes; the other two are mini-lot and micro-lot.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Standard Lot’

A standard lot represents 100,000 units of any currency, whereas a mini-lot represents 10,000 and a micro-lot represents 1,000 units of any currency. A one-pip movement for a standard lot corresponds with a $10 change. For example, if you buy $100,000 against the Japanese yen at a rate of  ¥110.00 and the exchange rate moves to ¥110.50, which is a 50 pip movement, you have made $500. Conversely, if the exchange rate falls 50 pips to ¥109.50  your net profit and loss is minus $500.

With the advent of online brokers and increased competition it is possible for retail investors to make trades in amounts that aren’t a standard lot, mini-lot, or micro-lot.

In the interbank market where banks trades with each other on platforms such as Reuters and EBS, the standard trading size, or standard lot, is 1 million units in the base currency.

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standard-lot.asp

Odd Lot

An odd lot is an order amount for a security that is less than the normal unit of trading for that particular asset. Odd lots are considered to be anything less than the standard 100 shares for stocks. Trading commissions for odd lots are generally higher on a percentage basis than those for standard lots, since most brokerage firms have a fixed minimum commission level for undertaking such transactions.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Odd Lot’

Odd lots may inadvertently arise in an investor’s portfolio through reverse splits or dividend reinvestment plans. For example, a one-for-eight reverse split of a security, of which the investor holds 200 shares, will result in a post-split amount of 25 shares. While trading commissions for odd lots may still be higher than for standard lots on a percentage basis, the popularity of online trading platforms and the consequent plunge in brokerage commissions means that it is no longer as difficult or expensive for investors to dispose of odd lots as it used to be in the past.

Odd Lots, Round Lots and Mixed Lots

While odd lots can include any number of shares between one and 100, a round lot is any lot of shares that can be evenly divided by 100. For example, 75 shares would be an odd lot since it is below 100 shares, while 300 shares would be a round lot since it can be evenly divided by 100.

Even Lot

A normal unit of trading for securities or bonds. An even lot purchase of stock is 100 shares, while an even lot purchase for bonds is five shares. A stock transaction that involves less than 100 shares is considered an odd lot and may incur higher trading fees on a fee-per-share basis.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Even Lot’

Investors may realize cost savings the more shares that they purchase. Institutional investors, for example, trade in much larger lots and can spread costs over more shares. Trading in large even lots results in enhanced market liquidity and minimizes the impact of trading spreads.

Also referred to as round lots or full lots.

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lot.asp

Handelsstrategie

Eine Handelsstrategie (auch mehrdeutig: Handelssystem) ist ein Regelwerk zum Handel von Wertpapieren oder Futures. Man unterscheidet manuelle und automatisch ausgeführte Strategien. Letztere werden auch als mechanische Handelssysteme bezeichnet.

Manuelle Handelssysteme bestehen aus wenigen, einfachen Bedingungen und Anweisungen, die „von Hand“ ausgeführt werden können. Mechanische Handelssysteme können sehr komplexe Algorithmen enthalten und werden von einem Computer ausgeführt.

Die meisten Handelssysteme stützen sich entweder auf die Fundamentalanalyse oder die Technische Analyse und deren Indikatoren, um Einstiegs- und Ausstiegssignale zu generieren. Darüber hinaus muss man die Money Management Regeln definieren. Interessanterweise kann das falsche Money Management eine im Prinzip profitable Strategie unprofitabel machen[1] (das Gegenteil ist nie möglich).

Typische Handelssysteme der technischen Analyse

Die typischen technischen Handelssysteme lassen sich in die folgenden Klassen einteilen:

Trendfolger

Trendfolge-Handelsansätze versuchen in bereits bestehende Kurstrends einzusteigen. Sie steigen wieder aus, sobald der Trend „bricht“. Weil es naturgemäß unmöglich ist, einen Trend zu erkennen, bevor er sich ausgebildet hat, nennt man Trendfolger oft auch „Trittbrettfahrer“. Sie nehmen es in Kauf, nicht die gesamte Bewegung mitzumachen, sondern nur einen Teil davon. Trendfolge hat nichts mit Techniken zu tun, die auf der versuchten Antizipation von Trends beruhen.

Trendfolge-Systeme wurden in der Managed Futures Szene durch erfolgreiche Trader wie Richard Dennis oder William Eckhardt bekannt. Durch die spektakuläre Geschichte eines Experiments in den frühen 1980er Jahren erlangte das Turtle-Trader-System weltweite Bekanntheit. Es wurde 1993 erstmals vollständig offengelegt und publiziert.

Pullback

Ein Pullback-Handelssystem wartet auf eine gegenläufige Bewegung in einem bestehenden Trend und steigt dann in Trendrichtung ein.

Channel-Breakout

Es wird ein Trendkanal definiert. Verlassen die Kurse den Kanal, steigt das System entsprechend ein.

Zyklen

Dieser Ansatz geht davon aus, dass in der Preisbewegung Zyklen enthalten sind. So gibt es z. B. jahreszeitliche Schwankungen bei den Preisen für Rohstoffe. Bekannte Beispiele sind das 6-Phasen Modell von Leon Levey oder das „Ei des Kostolany“

Muster

Beim Handel von Mustern (sog. Patterns) wird davon ausgegangen, dass es bestimmte, sich auch in Zukunft wiederholende Muster im Preis eines Wertpapiers gibt, da die Marktteilnehmer in gleichgelagerten Situationen gleich agieren – so die Annahme. Beispiele für klassische Pattern sind Dreieckformationen, Flaggen, Rechtecke, Doppel-Top und Doppel-Boden.

Datenbasis

Zum Betrieb und Test von Handelssystemen werden die historischen Kursdaten, ggf. auch Volumendaten und unternehmensbezogene Nachrichten eines Wertpapiers benötigt. Man unterscheidet hier zwischen verschiedenen Zeitrahmen: „End-of-Day“ (EOD)-Daten fassen einen Handelstag in einem Datensatz zusammen. Die sog. „Intraday“-Daten haben dagegen eine Auflösung von Stunden, Minuten oder sogar Ticks.

Strategien der Fundamentalanalyse

Strategien im Hochfrequenzhandel

Für den Hochfrequenzhandel gibt es spezialisierte Strategien, die bestimmte Effekte ausnutzen, die auf dieser sehr kurzfristigen Zeitebene auftreten.

→ Hauptartikel: Hochfrequenzhandel#Strategien im Hochfrequenzhandel

Entwicklung, Backtesting und Realsimulation

Entwicklung

Elektronische Handelssysteme werden als Software implementiert, hierfür existieren verschiedene spezialisierte Plattformen und Programmiersprachen.

Backtest

Beim sog. Backtesting wird das System mit Daten aus der Vergangenheit getestet und ggf. die Parameter bzgl. bestimmter Kriterien, wie z.B. Performance oder Volatilität optimiert. Bei der Optimierung entsteht das Problem, dass unklar ist, inwieweit das Handelssystem tatsächlich verbessert wird oder ob das Handelssystem einfach nur besser an die vorhandenen historischen Daten angepasst wird. Im Extremfall wird ein zu an die Kurshistorie angepasster Algorithmus zwar gute Ergebnisse im Backtest liefern, jedoch auf neuen Daten nicht mehr funktionieren.

Die Aussagekraft eines reinen „Backtesting“ ist somit gering.

Forward Test

Durch die Optimierung auf historischen Kursen lässt sich noch keine Aussage über die Profitabilität in der Zukunft treffen. Deswegen müssen Handelssysteme nach Abschluss der Entwicklung und Optimierung auf neuen bzw. noch unbekannten Kursreihen getestet werden. Dies nennt man entsprechend Forward testing.

Dieser Test stellt einen grundsätzlichen Durchführbarkeitstest dar und dient der Überprüfung eines Handelsmodells hinsichtlich der gemachten Annahmen.

Weblinks

Siehe auch

Einzelnachweise

 

  • Vasily Nekrasov: Knowledge rather than Hope. Book for Retail Investors and Mathematical Finance Students. Nekrasov, Steinenbronn 2014, ISBN 978-3-00-046520-8, S. 24–26.

Quelle: Seite „Handelsstrategie“. In: Wikipedia, Die freie Enzyklopädie. Bearbeitungsstand: 14. Januar 2017, 22:44 UTC. URL: https://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Handelsstrategie&oldid=161643356 (Abgerufen: 1. Januar 2018, 18:45 UTC)

 

Contrarian Investing

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time.[1]

A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets. For example, widespread pessimism about a stock can drive a price so low that it overstates the company’s risks, and understates its prospects for returning to profitability. Identifying and purchasing such distressed stocks, and selling them after the company recovers, can lead to above-average gains. Conversely, widespread optimism can result in unjustifiably high valuations that will eventually lead to drops, when those high expectations don’t pan out. Avoiding (or short-selling) investments in over-hyped investments reduces the risk of such drops. These general principles can apply whether the investment in question is an individual stock, an industry sector, or an entire market or any other asset class.

Some contrarians have a permanent bear market view, while the majority of investors bet on the market going up. However, a contrarian does not necessarily have a negative view of the overall stock market, nor do they have to believe that it is always overvalued, or that the conventional wisdom is always wrong. Rather, a contrarian seeks opportunities to buy or sell specific investments when the majority of investors appear to be doing the opposite, to the point where that investment has become mispriced. While more “buy” candidates are likely to be identified during market declines (and vice versa), these opportunities can occur during periods when the overall market is generally rising or falling.

Similarity to value investing

Contrarian investing is related to value investing in that the contrarian is also looking for mispriced investments and buying those that appear to be undervalued by the market. In the bible on contrarian thinking, “The Art of Contrary Thinking” (1954) by Humphrey B. Neill, he notes it is easy to find something to go contrary to, but difficult to discover when everybody believes it.[2] He concludes “when everybody thinks alike, everybody is likely to be wrong.” Some well-known value investors such as John Neff have questioned whether there is a such thing as a “contrarian”, seeing it as essentially synonymous with value investing. One possible distinction is that a value stock, in finance theory, can be identified by financial metrics such as the book value or P/E ratio. A contrarian investor may look at those metrics, but is also interested in measures of “sentiment” regarding the stock among other investors, such as sell-side analyst coverage and earnings forecasts, trading volume, and media commentary about the company and its business prospects.

In the example of a stock that has dropped because of excessive pessimism, one can see similarities to the “margin of safety” that value investor Benjamin Graham sought when purchasing stocks—essentially, being able to buy shares at a discount to their intrinsic value. Arguably, that margin of safety is more likely to exist when a stock has fallen a great deal, and that type of drop is usually accompanied by negative news and general pessimism.

Along with this, although more dangerous, is shorting overvalued stocks. This requires ‘deep pockets’ in that an overvalued security may continue to rise, due to over-optimism, for quite some time. Eventually, the short-seller believes, the stock will ‘crash and burn’.

Notable contrarian investors

  • Warren Buffett is a famous contrarian, who believes the best time to invest in a stock is when shortsightedness of the market has beaten down the price.
  • Michael Lee-Chin is a Jamaican Billionaire investor who is often associated with contrarian investing.
  • Jim Rogers is an investor and author who is bullish on contrarian investing in Asian markets.
  • Marc Faber is a contrarian investor who publishes the Gloom Boom & Doom Report.
  • David Dreman is a money manager often associated with contrarian investing. He has authored several books on the topic and writes the “Contrarian” column in Forbes magazine.
  • John Neff, who managed the Vanguard Windsor fund for many years, is also considered a contrarian, though he has described himself as a value investor (and questioned the distinction).
  • Mark Ripple is a money manager often described as a contrarian. He has authored a book covering the topic in detail.
  • Paul Tudor Jones is a contrarian investor who attempts to buy and sell turning points.
  • Bill Ackman is a contrarian investor who raised his stake in beaten-down Valeant Pharmaceuticals, against the odds, twice. He is short-selling Herbalife, predicting that it will crash and burn.
  • Humphrey B. Neill is the father of contrary thinking. See his book cited above.

Examples of contrarian investing

Commonly used contrarian indicators for investor sentiment are Volatility Indexes (informally also referred to as “Fear indexes”), like VIX, which by tracking the prices of financial options, gives a numeric measure of how pessimistic or optimistic market actors at large are. A low number in this index indicates a prevailing optimistic or confident investor outlook for the future, while a high number indicates a pessimistic outlook. By comparing the VIX to the major stock-indexes over longer periods of time, it is evident that peaks in this index generally present good buying opportunities.

Another example of a simple contrarian strategy is Dogs of the Dow. When purchasing the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that have the highest relative dividend yield, an investor is often buying many of the “distressed” companies among those 30 stocks. These “Dogs” have high yields not because dividends were raised, but rather because their share prices fell. The company is experiencing difficulties, or simply is at a low point in their business cycle. By repeatedly buying such stocks, and selling them when they no longer meet the criteria, the “Dogs” investor is systematically buying the least-loved of the Dow 30, and selling them when they become loved again.

When the Dot com bubble started to deflate, an investor would have profited by avoiding the technology stocks that were the subject of most investors’ attention. Asset classes such as value stocks and real estate investment trusts were largely ignored by the financial press at the time, despite their historically low valuations, and many mutual funds in those categories lost assets. These investments experienced strong gains amidst the large drops in the overall US stock market when the bubble unwound.

Relationship to behavioral finance

Contrarians are attempting to exploit some of the principles of behavioral finance, and there is significant overlap between these fields. For example, studies in behavioral finance have demonstrated that investors as a group tend to overweight recent trends when predicting the future; a poorly performing stock will remain bad, and a strong performer will remain strong. This lends credence to the contrarian’s belief that investments may drop “too low” during periods of negative news, due to incorrect assumptions by other investors, regarding the long-term prospects for the company. Furthermore, Foye and Mramor (2016) find that country-specific factors have a strong influence on measures of value (such as the book-to-market ratio) this leads them to conclude that the reasons why value stocks outperform are both country-specific and behavioral.[3]

See also

References

 

 

External links

Source: Contrarian investing, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Contrarian_investing&oldid=808014720 (last visited Jan. 1, 2018).

Antizyklisches Investieren

Antizyklisches Investieren (englisch contrarian investing, dt. auch Contrarian-Strategie) ist eine Anlage- bzw. Timing-Strategie, bei der ein Anleger versucht einen Ertrag zu generieren, indem er entgegen der breiten Masse, also antizyklisch handelt. Das bedeutet prinzipiell bei schlechter Konjunktur bzw. schlechter Marktstimmung zu kaufen und bei guter Konjunktur bzw. Stimmung zu verkaufen. Der zur Börsenweisheit gewordene Spruch von Carl Mayer von Rothschild „Kaufen, wenn die Kanonen donnern, verkaufen, wenn die Violinen spielen.“ fasst diese Strategie in markigen Worten zusammen.[1]

Die Grundidee dahinter ist, dass die Meinung der Mehrheit zu einer Übertreibung der Kurse führt, sowohl nach oben, als auch nach unten. Ist z. B. die Mehrheit der Anleger positiv für einen Markt gestimmt und erwartet sie weiter steigende Kurse, so kauft sie Wertpapiere auch noch zu Preisen, die fundamental nicht mehr gerechtfertigt sind (es kommt folglich zu einer Abweichung des inneren Wertes). Ebenso verhält es sich bei Verkäufen in einem Papier. Die Anleger verkaufen aus Angst oder Panik die Papiere immer weiter und sorgen so für Kurse, die weiter fallen, als eine „faire“ Bewertung des Unternehmens es rechtfertigen würde.

Der Strategie legt die Annahme zugrunde, dass sich die Anleger nicht rational verhalten (siehe auch Homo oeconomicus), sondern – wie ein Herdentier – immer das Verhalten der breiten Masse nachahmen, sprich ihr „hinterherrennen“. Dies entspricht irrationalem von Emotionen getrieben Verhaltensweisen. Dies wiederum kann anderen Marktteilnehmern potentiell attraktive Investmentchancen ermöglichen.

Außerdem nimmt die Strategie an, dass sich ein Finanzmarkt in Zyklen bewegt, also auf fallende Kurse auch wieder steigende Kurse folgen – und umgekehrt. Sie kann somit auch als eine Mean-Reversion-Strategie betrachtet werden. Hierin liegt auch die größte Schwierigkeit der Strategie, setzt sie doch voraus, dass der Anleger in der Lage ist – innerhalb einer gewissen Toleranz – den Zeitpunkt des Tiefst- bzw. Höchstpunkts zu bestimmen. Darüber hinaus besteht die Möglichkeit, dass ohnehin bereits tief gefallene Aktien noch weiter fallen können. Man spricht in diesem Zusammenhang auch von sogenannten “Value Traps”.

Siehe auch

Weblinks

Einzelnachweise

  1. Klaus-J. Fink: 888 Weisheiten und Zitate für Finanzprofis, S. 11, Springer-Verlag 2007 (Google-Books: [1])

Trend following

Trend following is an investment strategy based on the technical analysis of market prices, rather than on the fundamental strengths of the companies. In financial markets, traders and investors using a trend following strategy believe that prices tend to move upwards or downwards over time. They try to take advantage of these market trends by observing the current direction and using this to decide whether to buy or sell.

There are a number of different techniques, calculations and time-frames that may be used to determine the general direction of the market to generate a trade signal (forex signals), these including the current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders who employ this strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it. Due to the different techniques and time frames employed by trend followers to identify trends, trend followers as a group are not always strongly correlated to one another.

Trend following is used by commodity trading advisors (CTAs) as the predominant strategy of technical traders. Research done by Galen Burghardt has shown that between 2000-2009 there was a very high correlation (.97) between trend following CTAs and the broader CTA index.[1]

Definition

Trend following is an investment or trading strategy which tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Traders who employ a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend (when they perceived that a trend has established with their own peculiar reasons or rules) and ride it. These traders normally enter in the market after the trend “properly” establishes itself, betting that the trend will persist for a long time, and for this reason, they ignore the initial turning point profit. A market “trend” is a tendency of a financial market price to move in a particular direction over time. If there is a turn contrary to the trend, they exit and wait until the turn establishes itself as a trend in the opposite direction. In case their rules signals an exit, the trader exits but re-enters when the trend re-establishes.

Cutting Loss. Exit market when market turn against them to minimize losses, and “let the profits run”, when the market trend goes as expected until the market exhausted and reverses to book profit.

This trading or “betting with positive edge” method involves a risk management component that uses three elements: number of shares or futures held, the current market price, and current market volatility. An initial risk rule determines position size at time of entry. Exactly how much to buy or sell is based on the size of the trading account and the volatility of the issue. Changes in price may lead to a gradual reduction or an increase of the initial trade. On the other hand, adverse price movements may lead to an exit for the entire trade.

In the words of Tom Basso, in the book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom[2]

The key reasons for trending markets are a number of behavioral biases that cause market participants to over-react:

Herding: After markets have trended, some traders jump on the bandwagon, and thus prolonging the herding effect and trends.

Confirmation Bias: People tend to look for information that confirm their views and believes. This can lead investors to buy assets that have recently made money, and sell assets that have declined, causing trends to continue.

Risk Management: Some risk-management models will sell in down markets as for example some risk budgets have been breached and buy in up markets as new risk budgets have been unlocked, causing trends to persist.

Considerations

  • Price: One of the first rules of trend following is that price is the main concern. Traders may use other indicators showing where price may go next or what it should be but as a general rule these should be disregarded. A trader need only be worried about what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The current price and only the price tells you what the market is doing.
  • Money management: Another decisive factor of trend following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the decision of how much to trade over the course of the trend.
  • Risk control: Cut losses is the rule. This means that during periods of higher market volatility, the trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more positive price trends reappear.
  • Rules: Trend following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. This technique is not based on an analysis of fundamental supply and demand factors.
  • Diversification: Research published by hedge fund manager Andreas Clenow shows that cross asset diversification is an essential part of professional trend following.[3]

Example

A trader would identify a security to trade (currencies/commodities/financials) and would come up with a preliminary strategy, such as:[4]

  • Commodity: soybean oil
  • Trading approach: long and short alternately.
  • Entrance: When the 50 period simple moving average (SMA) crosses over the 100 period SMA, go long when the market opens. The crossover suggests that the trend has recently turned up.
  • Exit: Exit long and go short the next day when 100 period SMA crosses over 50 period SMA. The crossover suggests that the trend has turned down.
  • Stop loss: Set a stop loss based on maximum loss acceptable. For example, if the recent, say 10-day, average true range is 0.5% of current market price, stop loss could be set at 4×0.5% = 2%. Conventional wisdom on stop losses set the risk per trade anywhere between 1%-5% of capital for a single trade; this risk varies from one trader to another.

The trader would then backtest the strategy, using actual data and would evaluate the strategy. The simulator would generate estimated number of trades, the fraction of winning/losing trades, average profit/loss, average holding time, maximum drawdown, and the overall profit/loss. The trader can then experiment and refine the strategy. Care must be taken, however, to avoid over-optimization.

It is possible that a majority of the trades may be unprofitable, but by “cutting the losses” and “letting profits run”, the overall strategy may be profitable. Trend trading is most effective for a market that is quiet (relative low volatility) and trending. For this reason, trend traders often focus on commodities, which show a stronger tendency to trend than on stocks, which are more likely to be mean reverting (which favors swing traders).

In addition to quiet low volatility markets, where trend following strategies perform well, trend trading is also very effective in high volatile markets (market crash). Trend traders “short” the market and benefit from the downside market trend.

See also

Techniques:

Related phenomena:

Notes and references

 

 

Further reading

Source: Trend following, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trend_following&oldid=788363825 (last visited Jan. 1, 2018).

 

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